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Friday 18 July 2008

How Gordon sees the world

Mark Leonard, an authority on Labour foreign policy with strong connections to the government, has spoken to those close to the Chancellor in search of Brown’s notoriously opaque views on international affairs. This is what he discovered

This showdown might turn into a double-struggle, because EU leaders have also agreed to negotiate a new treaty to replace the failed constitution by 2009. The German government, which holds the rotating presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2007, would like to start a process of picking through the entrails of the rejected constitution next year, to craft a new treaty. By calling the new text a ‘treaty’ rather than a ‘constitution’, Berlin hopes that it can be ratified with parliamentary votes rather than referendums. When I met Merkel’s advisers — on the eve of Brown’s visit to Berlin — one even speculated about a ‘grand bargain’ where sceptical leaders such as Brown might agree to an ambitious treaty — in exchange for substantial reform of the CAP. Brown will need to decide if he is willing to ratify the new treaty with a parliamentary vote, or if he — like Blair — will succumb to press demands for a referendum. This will be a real conundrum. He won’t want to risk a referendum defeat so early in his premiership. But, at the same time, he will not want to pilot a European treaty through parliament before he has been blessed by the public in a general election.

A former No. 10 official argues that the biggest difference between Blair’s and Brown’s foreign policy will be in style rather than substance: ‘Blair’s ideal day is spent on the phone to ten foreign leaders trying to broker some deal through charm. Gordon is much more of a one-on-one man — he is not as comfortable brokering coalitions and building networks. He is much less of an extrovert than Blair.’ According to a Brown ally, this shyness leads the Chancellor to find solutions in the realm of policy: ‘His approach to the Middle East was immediately to go for the economics, working with [former World Bank President] James Wolfensohn to look at the underlying problems. It was very technocratic. Tony would have called a big summit and tried to charm everyone into submission. Gordon starts with a concrete solution.’

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