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Monday 7 July 2008

‘They come at three in the morning’

‘They come at two or three in the morning’

A dawn meeting with fugitive monks in a safe house in Burma

I was lucky. I reached the safe house and awaited their arrival. I cannot say where this house was located or give a hint as to the identity of the owner. The regime’s men in London would be very quick to grasp any sliver of information, pass it on to their colleagues in Rangoon and track him down. I can only say that he was a brave man who had taken to heart Burke’s dictum that for evil to triumph it was necessary only that good men do nothing.

Just after five in the morning two monks arrived and we sat in the corner of the room while the householder kept an eye on the front door. The younger of the monks told me that he had not slept in seven days. He listened constantly for the sound of vehicles. ‘At two or three in the morning, that is when they come,’ he said. Both monks told stories of colleagues who had been taken off into detention, stripped of their robes and beaten by soldiers. They also spoke of monks being herded off to labour camps.

Yet what remains most vividly is not the stories of repression but something the younger monk said at the end. I asked if the uprising was now crushed or whether there was a chance it would start up again. ‘We will the do the same again if we have the chance,’ he replied.

And that is what has changed in Burma. For it was not just the young monk who said this but many ordinary Burmese with whom I and my colleagues spoke. There was a powerful sense of a defining moment having been reached. The attack on the clergy has outraged the pious Burmese and the hopeful news is that the regime — despite the continuing crackdown — understands this.

I don’t believe there is going to be a Leipzig moment when popular revolution will end the dictatorship any time soon. But nor is there any chance that the status quo can be maintained. The question is whether the vital goal of a managed transition from totalitarianism to some kind of representative government can be achieved. The great danger is that hatred of the regime will grow and become violent and in turn provoke greater repression until the country descends into chaos.

If that is not to happen the international community will have to remain seriously engaged, pressing China to use its immense political muscle so that the Generals’ ‘talk’ of dialogue is converted into real negotiations. All of this comes against a background of escalating economic crisis. The UN’s wise and brave representative in Rangoon, Charles Petrie, told me it was impossible to go back to ‘business as usual’. His main concern right now is with helping the millions of malnourished and sick. Getting aid to them while still keeping pressure on the Generals is a task complicated by political arguments over whether to isolate or engage with the regime. The answer to that — as it was in South Africa during the transition — is about combining pressure with negotiation. The very worst thing will be if Burma is allowed to slide down the agenda because it is no longer headline news. That is the way to disaster.

Fergal Keane reported from Burma for BBC News.

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