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Wednesday 3 December 2008

Israel will do whatever it takes

Douglas Davis says that the Israelis are considering the nuclear option in response to President Ahmadinejad’s threat to ‘wipe Israel off the map’. An attack could be launched early this year

The route to Iran’s nuclear ambitions — and the prime targets for attack — run through four main nuclear facilities: at Bushehr, where a nuclear power plant is being built; at Natanz, where a major fuel-enrichment plant is located; at Arak, where a heavy-water plant has been inaugurated for producing weapons-grade plutonium; at Isfahan, where 3,000 scientists are engaged in a broad spectrum of nuclear-related activities, from co-ordinating the design of nuclear weapons to producing UF6 gas, the feedstock for centrifuge enrichment in uranium-conversion facilities.

While Iran is estimated to have up to 70 sites that are dedicated to nuclear development, American analysts say it could take just 15 accurate hits to retard the programme and delay development of the Iranian bomb for years. The problem here is that conventional American weapons can penetrate up to 30 feet of hardened materials or 100 feet of earth, but some of the Iranian facilities are reportedly buried at depths of up to 200 feet. That problem is compounded by the fact that Iran has constructed most of its facilities under alternating layers of earth and cement that have been specifically designed to absorb the impact of deep-penetration bombs.

The centrifuges are the essential ingredient in the enrichment process. They are also the weakest link and the priority target. These instruments are highly sensitive to the earth’s movement: if the environment is unstable they will become distorted and cease functioning. Satellite images of the Natanz facility indicate that two large centrifuge facilities are buried under a mix of reinforced concrete and soil at a depth of at least 75 feet, beyond the range of America’s bombs.

But there is a way of disrupting the centrifuges by simulating earth tremors through a nuclear strike. The neutron bomb, says one European source, might have been designed specifically for the purpose. This ‘clean’ atomic device emits huge quantities of high-energy neutrons which are capable of penetrating the toughest tank armour, destroying all biological tissue and electronic systems within its range.

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