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Cameron’s political language

Frank Luntz

Wednesday, 21st February 2007

The US pollster Frank Luntz has made a huge impact on recent British political conference seasons. Here he explains why the Tory leader is pulling ahead of the Chancellor — and what the American political scene has to teach them both

Washington

My Labour friends insist that the public just doesn’t know Gordon Brown the way Labour insiders do — that when the public gets to see Brown as leader, which could come any day now, they will warm to him. I expect the opposite — on the basis of many hours spent researching the thinking of voters on both sides of the Atlantic. Successive telephone polls and focus groups have shown that voters trust him but don’t like him. More importantly, while they overwhelmingly approve of his job performance, they have serious doubts about him assuming the top position. Put simply, they like the idea of Chancellor Brown but have serious doubts about Prime Minister Brown.

And it’s not just my own research. The Guardian/ICM poll this week gives a Tory party led by David Cameron a 13 per cent lead over a Labour party led by Gordon Brown. Right now, there is a remarkable similarity between the political mood over here and what we saw expressed at the US polls last November.

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Imagine the terror of the Chinese officials

David Tang

David Tang reflects on his visits to Beijing in the run-up to the Games, where Western expertise has been harnessed to the ruthless efficiency of China’s government machine

Nudge, nudge: meet the Cameroons’ new guru

James Forsyth

The economist Richard Thaler — a favourite of the Cameron and Obama camps — talks to James Forsyth about the power of ‘nudging’: small transformative acts of persuasion

The cross-party consensus on welfare reform echoes the Gingrich–Clinton revolution

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson on the coming political week

The Falun Gong show that meek can be provocative

Lloyd Evans

Lloyd Evans joins the dissident movement in a ritual exercise near the Chinese Embassy. He is unsettled to find himself understanding why China’s rulers get so paranoid about them

Big Brother versus YouTube: let the Beijing Games commence

Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard, Britain’s pre-eminent analyst of modern China, says the Olympic genie is out of the bottle. The prospect of global scrutiny has actually increased repression as the authorities try to stamp out dissent. But digital technology is impossible to police

Very discreetly, Cameron is writing his first Queen’s Speech

Fraser Nelson

In spite of their commanding poll lead, the Tories are terrified of seeming complacent. But, as Fraser Nelson discloses, work is well advanced on a first-term plan for government in which education reform and a welfare revolution will be the centrepieces

An innocent at Home

James Forsyth

Dominic Grieve, the new shadow home secretary, tells James Forsyth that he won’t ‘resort to soundbites’. But is this a sensible approach for a modern-day politician?

‘If there’s a vote of no confidence on 42 days, we’ll win’

Matthew d'Ancona

In her only print interview, Jacqui Smith tells Matthew d’Ancona that her proposal for the detention of terror suspects does not undermine Magna Carta, that she is ‘frustrated’ by Lord Goldsmith, and that the ‘West Midlands housewife’ is a better judge of the threat than MPs

Meet James Purnell: the best hope Labour has of avoiding disaster

Fraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson says that the 38-year-old Work and Pensions Secretary is the best candidate to succeed Gordon Brown. Already surging ahead at his department, he has the gift of sounding like an ordinary human being — and he understands the Cameron Conservative party

Welcome to subprime Britain. How scared should you be?

George Bridges

Mining data of unprecedented sophistication, George Bridges unveils a map of future economic pain: the areas where repossessions and negative equity are most likely to bite in the months ahead. The credit earthquake, he says, will be a huge factor in the next election