Alex Salmond would like the next government to be Tory
The Conservative party is almost dead in Scotland, with just one MP and no more in prospect, and the two parties are barely in competition. This opens the prospect of an SNP–Tory axis, an idea which alarms Labour activists. Mr Salmond could provoke English resentment, which could help topple Gordon Brown. His reward would be Scotland given financial independence — an idea once backed by David Davis.
This is Mr Salmond’s obvious next staging post. The Tories could plausibly claim to be strengthening the union, adopting the fiscal autonomy model which Spain uses in the Basque country. After agreeing custody of the fast-depleting oil reserves, Scotland’s budget would be set at what it raises in tax. It would satisfy the sense of English injustice, and could hardly be seen as cruelty to Scotland if the First Minister were lobbying for precisely this outcome. Mr Salmond takes the idea further.
‘Say the UK government gets fed up with magazines like The Spectator and newspapers like the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail mumping on in this disgraceful, near-racist way about whingeing subsidised Jocks. They might say that every country in the UK should stand on its own two feet, economically. If they asked, “What do you think, Alex?” I would say “yes” because I think that’s the only way to solve this argument.’ It is interesting to note how these publications are central to his gameplan. Mr Salmond wants the Daily Mail’s brickbats as badly as Mr Brown wants its bouquets.
Mumping, by the way, is Scots for ‘complaining’. Like most nationalists, Mr Salmond loves using Scots words and memorably denounced the Prime Minister as a ‘big feartie from Fife’ when he cancelled plans for an autumn election. ‘Forget Cameron — Salmond is now the largest thorn in Brown’s flesh,’ a senior nationalist recently told me. If the First Minister agrees, he does not admit it. Neither he nor the Prime Minister wants a fight, he says. ‘Why could it possibly be in Gordon’s interest to have arguments with or about Scotland? And I’d rather get on with creating the Celtic lion in Scotland.’
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JohnMcDonald
November 22nd, 2007 9:18amGosh, these Jocks are devilishly clever. Sidling up to royalty, using their local lingo to ingratiate themselves with the natives. What ever next? I hear tell there are even some living in Nottinghill!
Richard
November 22nd, 2007 9:33amBut why should any English person wish anything but success to Mr Salmond? It is more than possible that both England and Scotland would do very well by the end of the Union: it would, after all, be the end of Labour north and south of the Border.
Border Reiver
November 22nd, 2007 11:44amDear Mr Nelson, Thank you for another interesting interview. The people North of the Hadrian's Wall are Tory in their hearts: David Hume, Sir Walter Scott et al. Parochial yes, but also pragmatic and modern. Last night, Scots obviously took glee at England's Euro performance. However, in the pubs they do concern themselves with the issues expressed in the Daily Mail and Telegraph. Viceroy Brown and some of his ilk - as Fraser has pointed out- were winners of the Labour clan-wars of the '80s. The desire for control of any bit of government with a Highland charge of quasi-socialist beneovelnce has left many of us Scots in the twilight. Alex Salmond is a fine communicator. Watching our local SNP 'numpty' I sometimes doubt whether they have the real spirit to transform Scotland into a 'Celtic Lion'. If the Tories still had a predominately blue logo it would chime with the St Andrews Cross. Most of the big Scottish Tory beasts have gone instinct anyway. Maybe the best way is to let each Kingdom support itself and all support the Great British football team!
Gervas Douglas
November 22nd, 2007 4:28pmHe is a clever operator, Alec Salmond - not to be underestimated. Scotland in the late 19th century was a rich, entrepreneurial country. It is no more naturally socialist than Catalonia, whose socialist stance in Franco's era was largely a reaction against Madrid. If an independent Scotland had to finance its own government's expenditure I suspect that the Scottish middle classes would defect from socialist parties like Labour and the DimLebs faster than an Argyll Campbell would change sides on a battlefield.
Jamie
November 22nd, 2007 6:41pmI wish Alex Salmond and the SNP well. They have lifted the spirits of the Scottish nation. Labour had its chance and failed miserably. Time for a better tomorrow.
Simon Bannister
November 22nd, 2007 7:39pmA Tory Government, it's majority based on Englsh seats, will lead Scotland out of the Union inside 2-3 years! David Cameron will go down like a lead balloon North of the Border. The politics behind his Anglo-Majority will leave him unable and perhaps unwilling to mount a robust defence of the Union. In the other countries support will also wane with the Tories back in Office (it isn't exactly strong nowadays anyway). I look forward to the end of the British State which exists largely to provide a big stage for our politicians to strut and fret upon, is increasingly remote from those it governs and prone to bizarre imperial throwbacks in overseas wars (Mesapotamia and the North West Frontier are still places where British Soldiers fight and die...in 2007!!) and in lofty pronouncements on the doings of Foreign Powers.
Salmond is right - lets end this thing and do it swiftly. Also great fun to wind-up Gordon Broon!
Simon Bannister, Brighton (England)
Steve
November 23rd, 2007 10:04amInteresting article, I remember thinking to myself before GB became PM that his Premiership was likely to be short, unhappy and dominated by Scotland. But due to the general level of catastrophic incompetence currently on display, the Scottish problem is currently submerged, it won't go away though, it is one of those "dreary steeples of Fermanagh and South Tyrone" issues that are always there no matter what other issues they are buried under. One thing I would put good money on as an election draws near, is a whispering campaign around whether a Scot (i.e. Brown) is truly able to command a largely English House, where legislation can be made that does not affect his own constituents - a sort of WLQ with knobs on.
Richard Thomson
November 23rd, 2007 2:14pm"There is plenty of question, not least from government figures suggesting England is subsidising Scotland to the tune of £11 billion a year" Rubbish, Fraser. You can't exclude oil, and neither can you exclude the share of that (hotly disputed) number which arises as a result of the UK as a whole borrowing £35bn this year to balance the books. It's a bit cheeky to claim that money borrowed to cover expenditure in all parts of the UK, including England, can represent a subsidy from England to Scotland! "And what is not in doubt is that Scotland’s state spending per head is some 24 per cent higher than England’s" Oh yes it is in doubt. Even the worst esimates only put it at 55% of GDP, compared to the UK's 43%. Including North Sea revenues in the UK calculation but excluding them from the Scottish calculation (which would take Scotland's figure to 41%), is a piece of creative accounting of which Enron would be proud.
Martin
November 23rd, 2007 4:56pmI am English but I don't buy the England-is-subsidising-Scotland thing. How much of the corporation tax paid from London head offices is sourced from Scotland? How fast would it return North if Scotland had lower corporation tax rates? And how much of the obscene spending on management consultants and lawyers in London is "allocated" to Scotland? With Scotland's oil, I would be amazed if they weren't paying their way at least. Oil is 100 dollars a barrel.
Jason
November 26th, 2007 10:08pmJust a thought . Did you remind Mr Salmond that Scotland's share of the £590 billion or so of British national debt ( not counting pensions ) is ,at the Barnett Rules level of funding for Scotland of 11.75% of British govt. expenditure, some £69.325 billion . This is the debt that Scotland must take away at English independence . They can service it easily with all those oil revenues so shouldn't be too much of a problem !
Terry
November 27th, 2007 12:44pmDevolution was Labour’s attempt to neuter Scottish independence and at the same time ring fence a Labour stronghold that would be beyond the reach of the Tories. A Labour plan that failed! Could it be true? Maybe they'll resort to that other fool proof Labour plan. After all, Scotland does have weapons of mass destruction (Trident) AND oil... so it should be a just war, eh Gordon?!
Glen Gillespie
November 27th, 2007 8:49pmJason: Just a thought as you say. Under the treaty of union Scotland is entiteld to exactly 50% of all UK assets. 69 billion is small change compared to what England shall pay Scotland in this divorce settelment.
Terry
November 28th, 2007 10:03amHow so Glen? I assume you'll be accounting for the past 300 years and not just the last 30? If so you'll remember to add in the money sent by the Goshen Proportion as well as what's owed under the Barnett Formula, won't you?
Ross
December 7th, 2007 2:11amRe the question of the portion of the historically incurred national debt that Scotland might accept on separation from the United Kingdom we should take the precedent set by the separation of the Irish Free State. After all Scotland's population had no ability to deny the overwhelming English majority in its determination of how large the debt, or surplus, would be.
Alasdair
December 11th, 2007 7:04amTerry, Nonsense! Current assets only.