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Thursday 4 December 2008

Annapolis will achieve little

This Middle East summit is a distraction that will achieve little

The Annapolis Middle East summit won’t produce anything more than a commitment to hold another meeting. But the real worry is that Condoleezza Rice’s intense focus on the Israel Palestine question could distract her from more pressing matters in Iraq, Pakistan and North Korea.

Zelikow, who argued inside the administration for greater American engagement with the Israel–Palestine issue, cautions those who are tempted to dismiss the whole thing. ‘There’s a lot going on beneath the surface,’ he says. ‘The world doesn’t know what’s been said in conversations between Condi Rice and Tzipi Livni [Israeli foreign minister], Rice and Abbas, Rice and Olmert.’ He argues that the high level of American engagement, and the decision to break away from the constraints of the ‘Road Map’, provides the opportunity for progress. He is also confident that his old boss has won her internal battles. When I asked him if the administration had a unified position on this issue, he replied, ‘Increasingly, it does,’ before hastily adding, ‘the Secretary of State does speak for the President on this.’ He argues that the weakness of Abbas and Olmert means that ‘you need American leadership’. But while America can take the horses to water, it can’t make them drink — as Bill Clinton found out to his immense frustration at the end of his presidency. Despite his mastery of detail and his unstinting efforts, he could not persuade Arafat to accept an agreement. Interestingly, though, Clinton records in his memoirs that he thinks Abbas would have taken the deal.

One of the things that makes Annapolis such an odd meeting is that we already know the outlines of the agreement that the two sides are working towards: they are retracing their steps more than anything else. As Daniel Levy, an Israeli negotiator at the 2001 Taba summit that came so close to success, and the son of Lord Levy, observes, ‘This is just the stunningly boring and frustrating thing about this conflict: we know what the solutions look like. The outlines are there.’ He notes that ‘all the commitments that will be made at Annapolis were made four years ago’, but that commitments without political will achieve nothing. He complains that Blair’s jobs initiative, worthy as it may be, ‘is learning nothing from experience’.

More articles from: James Forsyth | this section

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