Those who suffer under Mugabe see no cause for optimism
Mbeki — who desperately wants a triumph before his ‘quiet diplomacy’ approach sinks without a whimper — visited Harare in late November, meeting both Mugabe and the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who was badly beaten up by state security forces earlier this year. One of the most emotive divisions centres on the land grabs. Mugabe wants the MDC to join the government in demanding that Western donors compensate white farmers for the land they have had taken from them by the Zimbabwe government. The MDC refuses to do so.
But even with Mbeki now pulling his weight, there’s a feeling of too little too late. ‘The South Africa mediation has a total lack of seriousness,’ said Ibbo Mandaza, a political analyst and former publisher of Zimbabwe’s independent Daily Mirror newspaper. ‘What the MDC have failed to do to Mugabe they’re hoping to do through Mbeki. That’s stupid.’ A former Zanu cabinet member was equally sceptical: ‘There is no compunction on the part of Zanu to reform — this would only loosen its iron grip on power. The only hope of change is if Mugabe goes. This is unlikely because his own cabinet lieutenants can’t see him going and — perhaps more importantly — they don’t know where they would be the day after his departure.’
Could economic sanctions be strengthened against Zimbabwe? At the moment sanctions are ‘targeted’ at the ruling cabal while a cluster of Western banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, are propping up the regime with loans. But a closure of international business would hit ordinary Zimbabweans disproportionately hard.
With no obvious solutions to the crisis at hand, reformists have invested their faith in the country’s one predictable constant: inflation. The formal economy’s near- total collapse has already pushed Mugabe towards some lukewarm MDC compromises, including a freeing up of political assembly. The members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have agreed to help with an economic revival plan — provided Mugabe agrees to further political reforms ahead of elections. Whatever happens in Zimbabawe, the only thing that’s certain is that it will have tremendous repercussions for the whole of southern Africa. ‘The country is like a flipped coin at the moment,’ said one mining executive. ‘It’s still spinning in the air, but if comes down wrong-side up, there are going to be big problems for the whole region.’
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Rose
December 6th, 2007 9:22pmHaving read your comment above in your opening paragraph,I would like to express my disgust and fury over your remark on Ian Smith. He was the TRUE freedom fighter in Rhodesia, and he fought for every Rhodesian, both black and white. He made RHODESIA GREAT, MUGABE MADE ZIMBABWE RUINS. Rhodesians worldwide will keep him alive in spirit. Mugabe has no right to be classed as a human being, he is a traitor to mankind and his own people, put there with with the help of the then British Government. Ian Smith knew this would happen and no-one listened. He never turned his back on his people, even after the war was over and right up to his passing. A great man, our real hero
Herbert Thornton
December 7th, 2007 1:35amRose - the disgust you feel about the opening paragraph is well justified. Smith was a great, decent and very brave man.
My own thought is that just as Zimbabwe has fallen under the insane tyranny of Mugabe, Britain has fallen under the insane tyranny of Political Correctness. Perhaps writer felt that it was in his own best interest to go through the politically correct ritual of writing about Smith in abusive terms.
D Short
December 7th, 2007 8:30pmCan't see anything new in this piece that hasn't been written elsewhere in newspapers. And how can this writer call Smith 'tyrannical' in the same breath as Mugabe. Why no speculation over will Mugabe's eventual demise be the solution, just as for instance when Dr Savimbi was killed in Angola, everyone knew that would be the end of the 25-year civil war. One man goes, and the story changes. And why bang on about Mbeki when he will soon be a lame duck president when Zuma is elected ANC president in a mere couple of weeks or so? Very disappointed in how poor The Spectator is becoming.
Brian
December 8th, 2007 8:33pmI agree with the other writers....what a tragic story for Rhodesia which prospered under Ian Smith despite Harold Wilson. Just how long can this go on for? Not too long is my fervent hope
Maurice
December 10th, 2007 5:39pmThere was never any food shortages for anyone - black or white - in Ian Smith's time, not even during the terror war led by Mugabe. Rhodesia was the envy of every black African state. Now look what's happened.
Jo
December 13th, 2007 7:00pmI agree that very little of the information is new but I turn to The Spectator for well written commentary which this article is as always. It was good to be reminded that it is the Jacaranda season. I can almost smell it - is it raining yet? You didn't say. For people connected to Zimbabwe, it is interesting to hear what conservatives such as The Spectator and its readers think and are willing to say if not shout. I was also interested in some subtle features of your article such as the sources of your information. If I understood you, you concluded that the situation, as it is now, is very difficult to resolve and will take detailed negotiations with a broad range of stakeholders. The key and value of the piece seems to me to be recognition that 15 million Zimbabweans are each acting in their perceived self-interest, as are other players including the United Kingdom. The corollary is that effective politics brings all these interests together in a way that benefits us everyone involved. Missing of course is your opinion of Gordon Brown's boycott of Lisbon which, presumably, is why this article was published now. As a person with long standing connections to Zimbabwe, one thing I do know about the way forward is that we need to leave, and be seen to leave, colonial arrogance at the door, and to go to the table with a deep respect of the rights of Zimbabweans to define their own destiny. Until we do so, we will make no progress. I am saddened by the commentary. You may like to ask yourselves whether you are not fueling the virulent anti-British sentiment in some quarters of Zimbabwe. You might also like to consider whether the contempt expressed for Zimbabweans in fora such as these has not encouraged attacks on people associated with the UK which in some cases have led to their deaths. I might also add that speaking carefully is not a matter of being PC. It is a matter of understanding the difficulties and tensions in contemporary Zimbabwe and taking care not to exacerbate tempers and animosities from the sidelines.
James
December 14th, 2007 1:28amJo, sorry to quibble but 'speaking carefully' so as not to inflame the overwraught sensibilities of non-dead-white-males is almost the dictionary definition of PC. A reappraisal of Smith is overdue and a rehabilitation of the positive side of (British) colonialism is a quite respectable project.
Jo
December 14th, 2007 11:06amHi James. Quibble as much as you like with me. We are both over here and it is an academic exercise! Is it done to reply to a reply? If not, I am sorry.
butch
December 22nd, 2007 2:19amIan Smith may not have given them the vote. But they had FOOD EDCUATION HEALTH HOSPITALS WORK WAGES a Life span beyond 27/30 years Now they have the Vote and nothing else except dispair This will never end see the Conga as one example
Brian
January 11th, 2008 10:41amRe my blog of Dec 8 last. I have just been to Victoria Falls on the Zim side. Incredulously the Vic Falls hotel still operates as it did. The full length paintings of King George V and Queen Mary still hang in the lounge and the whole hotel is beautiful. Obviously this is where that odious man Mugabe gets his foreign exchange as I negotiated my lunch time bill for two down from nearly 300000 Zim dollars to GBP 20...cash. Then I think I was done by the system. When will somebody do something for the Rhodesian pensioners Gordon?
Itayi Garande
January 22nd, 2008 3:39pmSad situation in Zimbabwe indeed. Mugabe runs the country like a Mafia organisation. See this latest article on Talkzimbabwe at http://www.talkzimbabwe.com
Mike
January 22nd, 2008 7:58pmAh, 'Ian Smiths Tyrannical footsteps' .... almost sounds like something you'd hear around the country in 1981 - 1982. I wonder, as a point of note, if the author spent any time in Rhodesia or Zimbabwe Rhodesia before Mugabe took power ..... or if he has even bothered to research the achievements that the late Ian Smith made within the country. With his simplistic and naive views of the situation facing Zimbabwe at the moment, and indeed over the past 28 years, I would hazard a guess that the answer is no. During my tenure there in childhood I lived near Bulawayo at Llewellyn barracks, and you would not believe the respect shown to the resident RAR troops, or the Selous Scouts (Near all of the former and over 60% of the latter were black, to use the non pc term). I find Rose's comment amusing, brings back some great memories of the old country ..... even just the quote from the old bumper stickers and T Shirts ..... hell, I even think I still have mine around somewhere. "We made Rhodesia great, they made Zimbabwe Ruins"
Roy
April 11th, 2008 9:48pmBritain should question it's own responsibility in the pushing aside of Ian Smith's government of the time. They couldn't get rid of him quick enough, and for what?
stangun
April 22nd, 2008 6:02pm"The domestic consensus is that Mugabe has managed both to follow in Smith’s tyrannical footsteps and to wreck the formal economy at the same time."
I still want to know what was so "tyrannical" about Ian Smith's tenure as PM? After all, most of the violence during the bush war was perpetrated by ZANU PF and ZIPRA, and security forces were responding to terrorist attacks and not initiating violence, unless in proactive defence. In the mindless media chatter there is this consensus that Ian Smith was evil, but reality does not support it.