Will Labour get rid of Gordon?
Labour would get rid of Gordon — if the plotters had a real candidate
There is conspiring in the corridors once again in Westminster. Who could replace Gordon, they ask. Labour’s problem is that the young pretenders are too young and the idea of caretaker leader seems slightly ridiculous, it would look absurd for the government to change Prime Minister twice in the same Parliament. So, Brown will solider on while the battle of succession rages just beneath the surface.
Labour MPs can also guess and wait. If the latest opinion polls were translated into a general election result, at least 110 of them would lose their seats. Such a prospect tends to focus minds. These doomed MPs are usually the ones pulling each other to the side in the Commons, often seeking out Cabinet members in similar positions (Jacqui Smith and Ruth Kelly). But for all the panic and head-shaking, there is a question none can answer. If Mr Brown will not lead Labour to the next election, who will?
Two battles are being discussed. One is being fought by the younger generation: David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, versus Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary. The latter regards himself as a potential Prime Minister (having authored most of Mr Brown’s better ideas for the last decade) and has concluded it is never too early to start destabilising his most likely rival. He is regarded as the source of recent reports alleging serious tension between No. 10 and Mr Miliband. Their enmity is now firmly established.
Mr Miliband, however, is making a decent fist of destabilising himself without anyone’s help. He misjudged the European Union treaty debate, has few friends in the PLP, and at 42 he seems more uneasy in this great office of state than David Owen did when he achieved the same high office aged 38. Many believe that Mr Balls, 40, wanted an early general election to ensure Mr Miliband could be demoted in an ensuing Cabinet reshuffle.
But neither looks ready for the top job. The idea of either as party leader triggers loud guffaws on Labour’s backbench. All of this means that the internal discontent against Mr Brown lacks focus. Until there is a plausible alternative candidate, there can be no putsch by the young. The mutiny is — as Harold Wilson once said — a shiver with no spine to run down. To use the analogy of the mid-1990s — a period of growing resonance in late 2007 — Labour has no one to play Michael Portillo to Mr Brown’s John Major.
Another ‘After Gordon’ scenario involves a ‘caretaker candidate’ who would occupy No. 10 for a year or so while the party looks for a long-term leader and gives younger candidates time to grow. The Australian elections have just shown how Kevin Rudd converted his leadership honeymoon into an election victory, becoming Prime Minister in his first year at the helm of his party. Labour, too, may find a bolt from the red. But who would be the ‘greybeard’ keeping this prospective leader’s seat warm?
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Gerry James
December 6th, 2007 9:46amWhy don't they get a Pole - they have given them England so why not.
Madasafish
December 6th, 2007 12:02pmFrankly they need a stand in for Brown.. who - unless he manages to turn himself 180 degrees around - is going to create evn more despondency, The man is an obvious dud. Balls and Miliband have no gravitas dfor what will clearly be a turn round job. Straw could do it: worthy but dull. A terrible speaker tho. But at least he's English. A party devoid of strong politicians.
TGF UKIP
December 6th, 2007 12:25pmWhen Gordon does crack up, it would seem highly likely that the unions and constituency parties will use the opportunity to shift the Labour Party sharply leftwards. Should be interesting to see in the coming months who among the bigger names, starts to mark out that sort of ground. One backrunner from the party centre, though, who it would seem to me, might be a long odds punt is John Denham. Elevated to the Cabinet by Gordon, he's good on TV, popular, I believe in the Commons, fairly wide experience in government, but above all would have great credibility with the constituencies because of his resignation from the Blair Government over Iraq. Whether he's got the union friends and the bottle or bottom the coming months as a Cabinet Minister might tell.
Paul Linford
December 6th, 2007 12:42pmJohn Denham, anyone?
Jeremy Poynton
December 6th, 2007 3:31pmYou say John Denham I say "who?"
Watervole
December 6th, 2007 4:25pmI fear Ed Balls would need to change his name by deed poll should he ever aspire to the highest office. The potential for verbal calamity is simply too tempting... Neither does it 'roll' off the tongue!
Dave Bartlett
December 6th, 2007 4:28pmVery much hope to see Douglas Carswell given more responsibility in any Tory frontbench reshuffle.
Sam
December 6th, 2007 9:48pmWhat a brilliant piece written by Mr Nelson, the best article Ive read in ages. Perfectly sums up the troubles of the Labour party. Most of them must know by now that the absolute best Brown can deliver at the next election is a hung parliment but the omens on the economy, education, europe,immigration, crime, health are not good. It is impossible to imagine that if this state of affairs carries on that voters are going to think to themselves in the general election 'lets give Gordon Brown another five years'. Cameron it seems to me is lacking slightly in gravitas, if only Ken Clarke could be tempted into the shadow cabinet it would be a massive boost but his views on europe would be bad for the tory party and out of step with the majority of voters. Alex Salmond needs to take the fight to Brown as well, if he were to announce a referendum for Scotland on the EU treaty that would plunge Brown into chaos!
Stan
December 7th, 2007 3:10amRe the caretaker option described, its fine for a party to do that whilst in opposition but definatley not in government. It would be an affront to democracy, its the voters that elect a PM not the Labour party.
john fazio
December 7th, 2007 6:04ammr. nelson recent events have been favourable for the tories but to draw these conclusions is at best wishful thinking and rather more like someone on acid. wake up to yourself. it reminds me of previous overly optimistic articles on the detailed policy initiatives ready to be implemented on the assumption of power by ian duncan smith. by all means enjoy your schadenfreude at the travails of labour but please don't insult our intelligence by going completely overboard.
Alan
December 7th, 2007 8:40amWhat goes around, comes around. I guess this is what you get for electing the biggest smiling liar of all time - 3 times!!!
Farhad
December 7th, 2007 9:12amAnyone for John Prescott? Sorry, that's not very funny.
Rattymole
December 7th, 2007 11:37amAn excellent and well-argued article. Brown is a dead man walking and if the best that Labour can do for the future is put up that swivel-eyed duo, Miliband and Balls, they are in deep trouble long term. Meanwhile the Tories must find a way to abandon their commitment to matching Labour's spending levels. The public isn't completely daft and, in a depressed economic situation, will respond favourably to a party that puts the emphasis on value for money rather than simply throwing billions at a problem. The Tories' task now is to hammer home the lack of value for money we have had under Labour. Totting up the amount of waste there has been over the last 10 years will produce a sum that will make people sit up and take notice. To compare that with the cuts in defence spending and the failure to provide for the basic necessities of the armed forces, whilst expecting them to accept an ever increasing risk of getting themselves killed, shows a government with no sense of reality or proportion. All that we can be thankful for is that Brown did bottle it on the election front and that we don't now face the prospect of him being in power for another five years.
Madasafish
December 7th, 2007 11:39amElecting? May I remind prior posters Brown was NOT elected as PM The Labour Party never voted for Brown as leader. The man has far less democratic credentials in that repect than Mugabe, Putin or some more obnoxious and long deceased WW2 leasers.
Stephen
December 7th, 2007 12:13pmI am reminded of Roy Lord Jenkins remark that Tony Blair had a first class personality and a second class brain and Gordon Brown has a second class personality and a first class brain. It is difficult to see how someone as poor at communication as Gordon Brown can turn around the fortunes of the Labour Party.
Richard Walker
December 7th, 2007 2:10pmBrilliant article. Whilst Brown is clearly unsuited to the prime ministerial role, Cameron needs to articulate an answer to the question what are the Conservatives for? Mrs. Thatcher knew the answer in 1979. Cameron needs to find the answer in 2007.
magpie
December 7th, 2007 2:22pmI think he went on to say that for a politician, a first-class personality was more important
George Bashforth
December 7th, 2007 3:17pm"He has raised taxes by an extra £250 billion every year — equivalent to £5,100 per British household"
I don't think so - 250 billion would be an inrease in taxes of 5,000 per person per year.
Govt. expenditure at present is just over GBP 1000 billion - so four years ago there was no govt spending?
Frank Leader
December 8th, 2007 7:04amMickey Mouse or Donald Duck could not do worse.
BlairSupporter
December 9th, 2007 6:16pmIt's obvious! Bring back Blair. Of course, THEY won't ask - and HE wouldn't accept. He has other fish to fry now. Even if Brown, Balls or the other Ed offered their constituency seat! So to Labour it's - 'so long, it's been good to know you'. It's clear as day. There is NO WAY for them to win a majority next time round with Brown in charge, for a multitude of reasons. And it ain't Blair's fault THIS time.
peter hammond
June 17th, 2008 2:25pmno one will vote for brown i was a die hard labour voter but not any more the final straw was not lisening to the experts on drugs knowing that he can not be trusted incharge of are econnermy or are army for that matter it is to dangers as he will not listen to the pepole in the know if it dose not suite him that is not a leader that is a foul