Will Labour get rid of Gordon?
Labour would get rid of Gordon — if the plotters had a real candidate
There is conspiring in the corridors once again in Westminster. Who could replace Gordon, they ask. Labour’s problem is that the young pretenders are too young and the idea of caretaker leader seems slightly ridiculous, it would look absurd for the government to change Prime Minister twice in the same Parliament. So, Brown will solider on while the battle of succession rages just beneath the surface.
David Cameron has meanwhile been going back to his constituency and preparing for government. This has involved a fairly sober assessment of how many genuinely Cabinet-grade people he has on his team (he struggled to get into double digits). Ideally, his next reshuffle should be the last. It is vital for his prospects that the Tory frontbench look and sound like a competent government-in-waiting in comparison to the disintegrating Brown Cabinet.
For all Mr Cameron’s hyperactivity, there is concern that he is confusing motion with progress. The hard questions are about how, precisely, he would implement the Wisconsin-style welfare reform he has spoken about. We are no closer to an answer than we were during the Tory conference. If the economy does implode, then the current Conservative strategy to outspend Mr Brown on public services might have to be completely reassessed. But there are no plans to do this. And so many issues of policy take us back to the question of Europe — yet we still do not know to what degree a Tory government would challenge Brussels.
Some senior Tories fear that Mr Cameron’s instinct is to play it safe — when the lesson of his death-defying performance at Blackpool conference was precisely the opposite. He proposed a radical welfare overhaul, inheritance tax cuts, and reductions in stamp duty, and the political landscape lit up, not least in the all-important Labour marginal seats. The Tories are more or less ten percentage points ahead. But at his pre-election best, Tony Blair was an astonishing 42 points ahead. His average lead was 25 points.
Mr Cameron is nowhere near such levels of popularity. At present, he is on course to win with a John Major-sized majority — yet judging by the literally criminal ineptitude on the Labour side a far better result ought to be within his grasp. There are at most 30 months until the next election, so a step change in Tory thinking is required. The clearer the defects of Labour policies become, the graver the danger becomes in simply mimicking them.
Labour itself will not change course. Mr Brown likes rigid long-term strategies — and his short-term plan is only to protect himself from internal insurgents. They have a poor track record. While the Tories can get rid of their leaders on a wet weekend, Labour has a dismal history when it comes to regicide. The party which endured Michael Foot for three years and Neil Kinnock for nine can whisper in the corridors of the Commons about life ‘After Gordon’ all it likes. But the odds are that such plans will only be needed when Mr Brown finally steps down as Leader of the Opposition.
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Gerry James
December 6th, 2007 9:46amWhy don't they get a Pole - they have given them England so why not.
Madasafish
December 6th, 2007 12:02pmFrankly they need a stand in for Brown.. who - unless he manages to turn himself 180 degrees around - is going to create evn more despondency, The man is an obvious dud. Balls and Miliband have no gravitas dfor what will clearly be a turn round job. Straw could do it: worthy but dull. A terrible speaker tho. But at least he's English. A party devoid of strong politicians.
TGF UKIP
December 6th, 2007 12:25pmWhen Gordon does crack up, it would seem highly likely that the unions and constituency parties will use the opportunity to shift the Labour Party sharply leftwards. Should be interesting to see in the coming months who among the bigger names, starts to mark out that sort of ground. One backrunner from the party centre, though, who it would seem to me, might be a long odds punt is John Denham. Elevated to the Cabinet by Gordon, he's good on TV, popular, I believe in the Commons, fairly wide experience in government, but above all would have great credibility with the constituencies because of his resignation from the Blair Government over Iraq. Whether he's got the union friends and the bottle or bottom the coming months as a Cabinet Minister might tell.
Paul Linford
December 6th, 2007 12:42pmJohn Denham, anyone?
Jeremy Poynton
December 6th, 2007 3:31pmYou say John Denham I say "who?"
Watervole
December 6th, 2007 4:25pmI fear Ed Balls would need to change his name by deed poll should he ever aspire to the highest office. The potential for verbal calamity is simply too tempting... Neither does it 'roll' off the tongue!
Dave Bartlett
December 6th, 2007 4:28pmVery much hope to see Douglas Carswell given more responsibility in any Tory frontbench reshuffle.
Sam
December 6th, 2007 9:48pmWhat a brilliant piece written by Mr Nelson, the best article Ive read in ages. Perfectly sums up the troubles of the Labour party. Most of them must know by now that the absolute best Brown can deliver at the next election is a hung parliment but the omens on the economy, education, europe,immigration, crime, health are not good. It is impossible to imagine that if this state of affairs carries on that voters are going to think to themselves in the general election 'lets give Gordon Brown another five years'. Cameron it seems to me is lacking slightly in gravitas, if only Ken Clarke could be tempted into the shadow cabinet it would be a massive boost but his views on europe would be bad for the tory party and out of step with the majority of voters. Alex Salmond needs to take the fight to Brown as well, if he were to announce a referendum for Scotland on the EU treaty that would plunge Brown into chaos!
Stan
December 7th, 2007 3:10amRe the caretaker option described, its fine for a party to do that whilst in opposition but definatley not in government. It would be an affront to democracy, its the voters that elect a PM not the Labour party.
john fazio
December 7th, 2007 6:04ammr. nelson recent events have been favourable for the tories but to draw these conclusions is at best wishful thinking and rather more like someone on acid. wake up to yourself. it reminds me of previous overly optimistic articles on the detailed policy initiatives ready to be implemented on the assumption of power by ian duncan smith. by all means enjoy your schadenfreude at the travails of labour but please don't insult our intelligence by going completely overboard.
Alan
December 7th, 2007 8:40amWhat goes around, comes around. I guess this is what you get for electing the biggest smiling liar of all time - 3 times!!!
Farhad
December 7th, 2007 9:12amAnyone for John Prescott? Sorry, that's not very funny.
Rattymole
December 7th, 2007 11:37amAn excellent and well-argued article. Brown is a dead man walking and if the best that Labour can do for the future is put up that swivel-eyed duo, Miliband and Balls, they are in deep trouble long term. Meanwhile the Tories must find a way to abandon their commitment to matching Labour's spending levels. The public isn't completely daft and, in a depressed economic situation, will respond favourably to a party that puts the emphasis on value for money rather than simply throwing billions at a problem. The Tories' task now is to hammer home the lack of value for money we have had under Labour. Totting up the amount of waste there has been over the last 10 years will produce a sum that will make people sit up and take notice. To compare that with the cuts in defence spending and the failure to provide for the basic necessities of the armed forces, whilst expecting them to accept an ever increasing risk of getting themselves killed, shows a government with no sense of reality or proportion. All that we can be thankful for is that Brown did bottle it on the election front and that we don't now face the prospect of him being in power for another five years.
Madasafish
December 7th, 2007 11:39amElecting? May I remind prior posters Brown was NOT elected as PM The Labour Party never voted for Brown as leader. The man has far less democratic credentials in that repect than Mugabe, Putin or some more obnoxious and long deceased WW2 leasers.
Stephen
December 7th, 2007 12:13pmI am reminded of Roy Lord Jenkins remark that Tony Blair had a first class personality and a second class brain and Gordon Brown has a second class personality and a first class brain. It is difficult to see how someone as poor at communication as Gordon Brown can turn around the fortunes of the Labour Party.
Richard Walker
December 7th, 2007 2:10pmBrilliant article. Whilst Brown is clearly unsuited to the prime ministerial role, Cameron needs to articulate an answer to the question what are the Conservatives for? Mrs. Thatcher knew the answer in 1979. Cameron needs to find the answer in 2007.
magpie
December 7th, 2007 2:22pmI think he went on to say that for a politician, a first-class personality was more important
George Bashforth
December 7th, 2007 3:17pm"He has raised taxes by an extra £250 billion every year — equivalent to £5,100 per British household"
I don't think so - 250 billion would be an inrease in taxes of 5,000 per person per year.
Govt. expenditure at present is just over GBP 1000 billion - so four years ago there was no govt spending?
Frank Leader
December 8th, 2007 7:04amMickey Mouse or Donald Duck could not do worse.
BlairSupporter
December 9th, 2007 6:16pmIt's obvious! Bring back Blair. Of course, THEY won't ask - and HE wouldn't accept. He has other fish to fry now. Even if Brown, Balls or the other Ed offered their constituency seat! So to Labour it's - 'so long, it's been good to know you'. It's clear as day. There is NO WAY for them to win a majority next time round with Brown in charge, for a multitude of reasons. And it ain't Blair's fault THIS time.
peter hammond
June 17th, 2008 2:25pmno one will vote for brown i was a die hard labour voter but not any more the final straw was not lisening to the experts on drugs knowing that he can not be trusted incharge of are econnermy or are army for that matter it is to dangers as he will not listen to the pepole in the know if it dose not suite him that is not a leader that is a foul
Anna
May 10th, 2009 2:10pmGordon Brown has been a total disaster...really thought he would be in charge after his announcment to look into ministers allowencencs...NO CHANGE..........
peter cross
June 9th, 2009 5:15pmGordon Brown has no control