On to South Carolina: Hillary gets back on track
But it’s all still to play for, says James Forsyth. Senator Clinton’s astonishing comeback does not mean that Obama is finished by any means -— and John McCain has injected much-needed energy into the Republican primaries, too
On a strategic level, the Clinton campaign made one big change. They started running Hillary against President Bush as they had during the summer months when she was cruising in the polls. The contrast appears to have reminded voters that the status-quo ante wasn’t so bad after all.
The race now turns on how Obama responds to this setback, the first that he has faced since coming to national prominence in 2004. His concession speech was eloquent and dignified, but he now faces a major challenge to persuade black voters in South Carolina to stick with him. Before the New Hampshire result, Obama led comfortably in the polls there. But the shock of his defeat will play to the fears of many black voters that the idea of an African-American president is simply unrealistic and that they would be better off sticking with the proven commodity that is the Clintons.
If Obama is to win the nomination, he must win South Carolina. But he must do so in a way that doesn’t alienate voters elsewhere. The temptation in South Carolina will be for Obama to emphasise his blackness more aggressively — but this could vastly reduce his cross-over appeal. Talking to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, I was struck by how much of an advantage Obama’s race was. They liked the idea that theirs was a country where a black man educated at Harvard Law could become president. They liked even more that Obama appealed to a narrative of hope rather than resentment about the quest to overcome America’s founding sin. If Obama turns himself into a sectional candidate, he will destroy the Obama brand, which is about the restoration of hope and unity.
The Democratic race has been scrambled by New Hampshire, but the Republican race is even more confused. As with the Democrats there have been two contests and two winners — Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire. But unlike the Democrats, the Republicans also have a candidate with almost unlimited money to spend on trying to win the nomination, Mitt Romney, and a figure with national name recognition who is banking on a late state strategy — Rudy Giuliani.
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K.Vijayakumar
January 10th, 2008 10:39amIf sentiments made a significant number of voters to vote for Hillary in the NH primary thereby ensuring her win,it should be a matter of concern to the male contestants. In the very nature of things, women will be better placed than men to cash in on sentiments. Obama, beware!
Samantha Smear
January 10th, 2008 10:43pmIt seems the lady whose question made Hillary Clinton (weepy in the manner of a child threatened with having its lolly taken away?) went on to vote for Senator Obama because one of his speeches made her weep with emotion. On this form let us pray that when it comes to the wire in November the Anmerican people remember where they are and elect John McCain.
Was this article, by the way, worth publishing? One appreciates that it had to be written or revised in a hurry, but one read better and more stylish analyses in the common prints the morning after.
Robert Sawyer
January 12th, 2008 1:42amAn insignificant "win," in a media, non-event.
Apropos of what was gained. Each took with them seven delegates as this primary goes on and on ad naseum. It's important that we keep in mind, that the Bill Clinton named the "Come back, Kid" was 45 years old, arguably a kid, Senator Clinton is a tired and soon to be worn out, 60 year old woman.
David L Nilsson
January 12th, 2008 9:25amLike everyone in the dead-tree media, Forsyth fails to notice the one candidate who unites rigid respect for America's traditions with a vision of its future that is exciting thousands of real voters, from all parties and none, and attracting millions in contributions from little people. Despite a blackout from the monied interests that are terrified of the consequences to their bottom lines of the USA ceasing to be the world's bully and welfare wagon for immigrants, this candidate got more votes than Giuliani in one state and almost as many in the other. www.ronpaul2008.com