For all his claims to have singlehandedly engineered British growth, Gordon Brown is the architect of policies that undermine his desire for a better society, writes Irwin Stelzer
Finally, and perhaps the most important economic consequence of Mr Brown is the one he must most regret: the strengthening of the dependency culture that keeps millions of British workers on their couches rather than on the job, while skilled and unskilled immigrant workers pour into Britain in their hundreds of thousands. No one doubts the Prime Minister’s belief in the ennobling nature of work, nor his desire to get what are called the economically inactive into work. Unfortunately, his laudable but misplaced compassion prevents him from taking the one step that would drive the hundreds of thousands on the welfare rolls to work: after reasonable notice, cut all benefits for everyone capable of any work — no interviews with social workers, no offer of training programmes that are proven failures. Bill Clinton, hardly a hard-hearted reactionary, even defied his formidable wife to put such a reform in place in America, as the state of Wisconsin had done earlier. It worked.
All is not lost, however. The entrepreneurial spark lit by Brown’s early reforms of the tax system might not be completely extinguished by his new more punitive approach to capital gains, small family businesses, and foreigners. The financial services sector has sufficient economies of scale and scope, and the gifts of the English language and a world-straddling time zone, to survive.
In the end, Britain’s future will depend on what the historian Michael Howard calls its ability to ‘manage what is now the most important balance of all’, that between the creation of wealth and its use to fashion a society capable of continued advances both in productivity and material wellbeing, and in social cohesion. Brown as Prime Minister, freed from the centrist tug of his colleague-enemy, Tony Blair, might be tipping the balance so far from incentives for wealth creation that he will find himself without the resources to achieve his goals of a healthier, better-educated, more secure and fairer society. That would be a pity, indeed.
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Philip Lundquist
January 18th, 2008 2:26pmthe author states that President Bush sought to reward greater risk-taking by business leaders. Another perspective is that he simply robbed the nation on behalf of already-wealthy friends, who have - in large part - thanked the American people by shipping their jobs overseas permanently. And the most coherent reasoning behind this madness does seem to be found within the conspiracy theorists' unveilings. Bush didn't spend all that time laying around in a casket at Yale Skull & Bones doing unprintable things without reason.
Mark
January 18th, 2008 5:56pmYou are absolutely right. My wife is a dentist, and she refuses to pay 40% income tax. Solution: she has reduced her workload and is aiming at staying just below the threshold. She is now working only 3 days a week. And very happy. If she works one more day per week, almost half of it would go to Brown!!! No way!!! I support her completely, 100%!!!
Don Whiteley
January 18th, 2008 10:52pm(This is a question for Mr. Stelzer to address. Can he explain in one of his columns why the pound sterling is so strong against the dollar, when the rate of government spending, the tax hikes and other disincentives to work are rising, and manufacturing in the UK has nearly vanished. I would be very interested if you could point me, and maybe some other readers in the right direction on this issue. )
Jon Livesey
January 19th, 2008 2:26amMr Stelzer's comments are well made. The frightening thing is that we have seen this movie before. Under Old Labour the votes that public sector jobs bought - and that is the real motive, create jobs for those who will then vote for whoever created the job - were in the nationalised industries like steel and coal. After Old Labour's economic policies collapsed, the steel industry was able to reduce its manpower by a half, so rampant was the over-manning. Today the useless mouths are carrying clipboards and telling us to eat our veggies, but the principle is the same. Back then, it took national bankruptcy to persuade the majority of voters to turn to other policies; we can only hope that it doesn't take such a disaster to persuade them this time. Lenin used to say "The worse the better" and though that may be the way to get the next Maggie elected, it seems a pity that we have to keep repeating the same failed experiment in social engineering over and over. After all, we already know how the movie ends.
Novus
January 21st, 2008 8:55pmMr Stelzer writes, "[...] Britain is less well positioned than it would otherwise be to cope with the impending slowdown. Instead of being in a position to finance Keynes-style stimulative spending increases, the government finds itself pledged to rein in the growth of spending." (p2) Since the accession of Mr Brown, a curious change has come over Mr Stelzer. It's hard to imagine the man who so encomiastically introduced the Routledge Classics edition of Hayek's Constitution of Liberty and who was credited with "Hayekian rigour" by the Shadow Chancellor falling for the chimera of "stimulus". This absurd notion is entertainingly demolished here: http://blog.mises.org/archives/007676.asp
Englander
January 25th, 2008 12:40pmThe one thing that most economic commentators seems to say about Brown is that he is economically competent, but I fail to see any justification for this claim. If by this they mean that Britain has grown economically over his period in power then you have to say is this due to Brown and if it is how much. During his period in office we have seen interest rates globally come down, but Britain still has higher interest rates than other countries which suggests all that has happened in Britain is that the rates have come down in line with other countries. If Brown had made a difference then interest rates would be lower than in other countries. Also how much of the growth has been funded through extra governnment spending? Anyone can grow an economy by borrowing and then spending. If Brown had made a difference economically then we would have grown and produced a surplus in the boom years - what do we have not one year (other than when following the Tories spending plans) of surplus under Brown. Competence to my mind has not been demonstrated. Turning now to the spending - has it increased productivity - no. Again is this competence, I think not.
Mark
January 26th, 2008 1:46pmReply to Don Whiteley. The City of London: Export of financial services; and attraction of international capital (with few questions asked, like a mega Switzerland...).