Will Obama face McCain? We’ll know after Super Tuesday
James Forsyth says that the Republican nomination is all but settled, and McCain has achieved a stunning comeback. If the Democrats want the White House, they must pick Obama as their candidate and put the Clinton past behind the party once and for all
The Clinton campaign has long planned to knock Obama out when more than 20 states vote on 5 February. The theory was that the Obama campaign would simply not be able to overcome the Clintons’ inbuilt advantages in so many places at once. The hopes that the Clintons are placing in the widening of the battlefield were revealed when Hillary’s written statement congratulating Obama on his win in South Carolina made sure to mention the coming contest in American Samoa.
Certainly, the forces arrayed against Obama are formidable. Hillary has institutional backing in pretty much every state — thanks to Bill’s campaigns in the 1990s. The Clintons also have two candidates to Obama’s one, with Bill able to pull in as much media attention as any normal candidate. Indeed, a recent survey of the media found that the former President got more press coverage than any of the Republicans running and was third among Democrats, after John Edwards.
Obama is facing opponents who know this is an all-or-nothing race. The Clintons’ tactics in South Carolina mean that there is no way that Bill can restore his reputation unless Hillary wins. For a Democratic audience to boo Bill Clinton, as they did at the Obama victory celebration in Columbia, is extraordinary. If Hillary loses, history will record that Bill Clinton demeaned his office both in it and out of it. A key Obama supporter in South Carolina — Inez Tenenbaum — told me after Obama’s victory speech that Obama would win because his ‘character is unimpeachable’. A defeat for Hillary would make impeachment the most memorable aspect of the Clinton presidency.
The good news for Obama is that he doesn’t need to win on Super Tuesday but just to avoid being knocked out. The longer the contest goes on the better it suits him. The primaries straight after 5 February are in Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska and then Maine, and a week later Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia — in all of which Obama can expect to do well. The Chesapeake contests, where Obama will be particularly strong, are also likely to get a disproportionate amount of coverage because they are occurring in the backyard of the political class.
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D. Day
January 31st, 2008 3:26amYour annointing of McCain may be premature. He still hasn't won anywhere near 50% of Rep. votes in any primary.
Sempronius
January 31st, 2008 10:27amAn interesting analysis but I'm not sure I agree with it. There is not much substance behind Obama - on national security he's a nightmare - I'm not sure he can withstand the scrutiny of the general election campaign, and he will still have to go some to beat the Clinton machine. I think now Giuliani is gone McCain is a shoo-in for the GOP nomination but I although he has a good chance against Obama I think Hillary will be a tougher prospect - much as I would like to see McCain win.
Ganpat Ram
January 31st, 2008 11:49amSo Forsyth wants Democrats to vote Obama with their brain? I think Forsyth is writing very much with his brain - as a Republican supporter he wants an easy candiadte for the Republicans to beat in the Presidential election. The very fact that so many Republican sympathisers are running over with enthusiasm for Obama makes me very suspicious. Their hatred of Hillary is not irrational, as is so often assumed: they know the Clintons are the most formidable enemies the Republican Party has had for a long time - since FDR, in fact. Nor were the Clinton tactics in South Carolina in the least bit discreditable. IT WAS OBAMA, not the Clintons, who made the election a racial matter, by claiming with nauseating hypocrisy that the Clintons' brief word of appreciation for the anti-racist legislation of President Johnson was meant, of all ridiculous things, to denigrate Martin Luther King....That was DELIBERATE RACIAL INCITEMENT BY OBAMA. For that reason alone I would NEVER vote for such a man. NO: HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT !!!!!!!!
micheal
January 31st, 2008 9:02pmu suck Obama rules
bob
January 31st, 2008 9:03pmObama rules
Diarmuid
January 31st, 2008 10:07pmGanpat - 10 exclamation marks. A sure sign of a deranged mind.
Ganpat Ram
February 1st, 2008 1:07pmDiarmuid: As you haven't a single serious point to make, your response is worthless. I am not surprised - such is the quality of Obamaniacs. It will be a huge pleasure when Hillary eviscerates this swaggering loud-mouthed thin-skinned conman.
NRBuchsbaum
February 2nd, 2008 1:00pmWhen is the ritish press going to finally condemn the Palestinians and stop letting anti-Semitism get in the way?
j.moreno
February 2nd, 2008 1:07pmMr. Forsyth underestimate our capacity to elect personalities, in this case a war "hero", 71 and a half years old who expects to re-live the Vietnamese fiasco. He advocates for more wars, probably beginning the demise of the last empire. All empires end when over reach the military capacities. Roman, Spaniard, French, British, Soviet were not defeated militarily by went bankrupt.
E Ukiro
February 2nd, 2008 8:01pmIt's easy to see why someone like Ram would not like Obama. People of his ilk would not vote for someone like Obama for the most narrow atavistic reasons. While I do not accuse Ram of racism it is still not likely that he would vote for someone whose father is African - for primeval reasons. Pardon the pun.
Jim
February 3rd, 2008 2:45amI am glad to know that the Clinton campaign staff members that are paid full time to serf the net and blob are still fully employed.
AUBREY KAMBA
February 24th, 2008 2:48pmamerica has moved from democracy to oligarchy,and to say dictatorship is non existant in the u.s is a lie they say mugabe has been in power for long but voting for hillary means that having two families rule a country the same number of years mugabe has been into power.voting for hillary is advocating plutocracy , oligarchy, dictatorship.YET people are suffering because of sanctions imposed on the mugabe government.next is another bush followed by chelsea clinton.OBAMA IS THE MAN