James Forsyth says that the Republican nomination is all but settled, and McCain has achieved a stunning comeback. If the Democrats want the White House, they must pick Obama as their candidate and put the Clinton past behind the party once and for all
Obama will get stronger over time for two reasons. First, the longer the contest goes on, the higher his name recognition will become and the more the lustre will come off the Clintons. Second, once the Republican contest is settled, Obama will benefit from an infusion of support in open primaries from Independents and Republicans.
Obama’s chances of avoiding a knock-out blow are helped by party regulations which state that delegates must be awarded proportionately. This means that a Hillary win in the two Democratic behemoths of California and New York will not have the decisive impact it would have in a first-past-the-post system. It also allows the Obama camp to pick their battles more carefully. Contrary to popular myth these people are not starry-eyed idealists but hardened political operatives who know how to fight.
The plan for the Obama camp is to minimise the impact of Hillary Clinton’s victories in large states — Hillary is almost certain to win three of the four states with the most delegates — while patching together a series of wins elsewhere. Obama is strong in the six 5 February caucus states — Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska and North Dakota — which play to his campaign’s strength at bottom-up organising. In terms of primaries, they are most likely to win in the south — Georgia and Alabama, border states such as Missouri and Tennessee, and in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas where Democrats fear the impact Hillary would have.
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D. Day
January 31st, 2008 3:26amYour annointing of McCain may be premature. He still hasn't won anywhere near 50% of Rep. votes in any primary.
Sempronius
January 31st, 2008 10:27amAn interesting analysis but I'm not sure I agree with it. There is not much substance behind Obama - on national security he's a nightmare - I'm not sure he can withstand the scrutiny of the general election campaign, and he will still have to go some to beat the Clinton machine. I think now Giuliani is gone McCain is a shoo-in for the GOP nomination but I although he has a good chance against Obama I think Hillary will be a tougher prospect - much as I would like to see McCain win.
Ganpat Ram
January 31st, 2008 11:49amSo Forsyth wants Democrats to vote Obama with their brain? I think Forsyth is writing very much with his brain - as a Republican supporter he wants an easy candiadte for the Republicans to beat in the Presidential election. The very fact that so many Republican sympathisers are running over with enthusiasm for Obama makes me very suspicious. Their hatred of Hillary is not irrational, as is so often assumed: they know the Clintons are the most formidable enemies the Republican Party has had for a long time - since FDR, in fact. Nor were the Clinton tactics in South Carolina in the least bit discreditable. IT WAS OBAMA, not the Clintons, who made the election a racial matter, by claiming with nauseating hypocrisy that the Clintons' brief word of appreciation for the anti-racist legislation of President Johnson was meant, of all ridiculous things, to denigrate Martin Luther King....That was DELIBERATE RACIAL INCITEMENT BY OBAMA. For that reason alone I would NEVER vote for such a man. NO: HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT !!!!!!!!
micheal
January 31st, 2008 9:02pmu suck Obama rules
bob
January 31st, 2008 9:03pmObama rules
Diarmuid
January 31st, 2008 10:07pmGanpat - 10 exclamation marks. A sure sign of a deranged mind.
Ganpat Ram
February 1st, 2008 1:07pmDiarmuid: As you haven't a single serious point to make, your response is worthless. I am not surprised - such is the quality of Obamaniacs. It will be a huge pleasure when Hillary eviscerates this swaggering loud-mouthed thin-skinned conman.
NRBuchsbaum
February 2nd, 2008 1:00pmWhen is the ritish press going to finally condemn the Palestinians and stop letting anti-Semitism get in the way?
j.moreno
February 2nd, 2008 1:07pmMr. Forsyth underestimate our capacity to elect personalities, in this case a war "hero", 71 and a half years old who expects to re-live the Vietnamese fiasco. He advocates for more wars, probably beginning the demise of the last empire. All empires end when over reach the military capacities. Roman, Spaniard, French, British, Soviet were not defeated militarily by went bankrupt.
E Ukiro
February 2nd, 2008 8:01pmIt's easy to see why someone like Ram would not like Obama. People of his ilk would not vote for someone like Obama for the most narrow atavistic reasons. While I do not accuse Ram of racism it is still not likely that he would vote for someone whose father is African - for primeval reasons. Pardon the pun.
Jim
February 3rd, 2008 2:45amI am glad to know that the Clinton campaign staff members that are paid full time to serf the net and blob are still fully employed.
AUBREY KAMBA
February 24th, 2008 2:48pmamerica has moved from democracy to oligarchy,and to say dictatorship is non existant in the u.s is a lie they say mugabe has been in power for long but voting for hillary means that having two families rule a country the same number of years mugabe has been into power.voting for hillary is advocating plutocracy , oligarchy, dictatorship.YET people are suffering because of sanctions imposed on the mugabe government.next is another bush followed by chelsea clinton.OBAMA IS THE MAN