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Clemency Burton-Hill
Clemency Burton-Hill

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Reasons for Barack Obama to be cheerful

Wednesday, 6th February 2008

James Forsyth says that Super Tuesday did not give the Illinois senator the mandate he craved. But, with money, time and inspiration on his side, he can still beat Hillary

Hillary had establishment support and access to a tried and tested money-raising machine. But Obama still lives. He won a majority of the states, 13 to her nine, and in the all-important delegate count Hillary is, at the time of writing, only leading thanks to the support of unelected super-delegates. The initial reaction in Washington was that the night was a touch disappointing for Obama. He failed to pull off the upset win in Massachusetts, New Jersey or California that would have marked him out as the frontrunner.

Indeed, given the wave of momentum that Obama had been riding since his two-to-one victory in South Carolina, many were expecting a tidal wave to sweep the Clintons away, a feeling that was bolstered by early exit polls. But though Obama failed to deal a knockout blow to Hillary, he is nonetheless in the stronger position now, as long as his supporters remain patient.

Hillary, after all, only broke the 60 per cent barrier in one state, and that was in Arkansas where she had been the governor’s wife. Obama did so in eight contests. He remains the overwhelming favourite of independent voters and the eclectic collection of states that he won shows inely nationwide.

Obama could force the Republicans to play defence in some unexpected places, and he cannot now be put in a box as the ‘black candidate’. Indeed, one of the most important stories of the night was that Obama has solidified black support while becoming ever more popular with whites. If Hillary loses the nomination, the decision to play dirty in South Carolina will be one of the main reasons why.

The next fortnight will be crucial for the Obama campaign. If the momentum is to be maintained, he must rack up victories in the vast majority of the upcoming contests. But the good news is that all nine are on favourable territory for him, and indeed it is entirely possible that he could sweep these states. This would transform the race again and put the press on Hillary campaign implosion watch.

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Bill Murray

February 8th, 2008 8:36pm

"It was meant to be the night that Hillary Clinton was anointed as the Democratic nominee presumptive." This was certainly the presumption very early in the campaign. However, even before South Carolina, it was clear to both pundits and "we the people" that this could easily go all the way to the convention. The outcome of Super Duper Tuesday would have been a surprise a couple of months ago, but it certainly wasn't one on the night. The really good news is that the convention will play its original role for the first time in decades. With the ascendancy of McCain over the usual rabid right wing nutters, America has a real, viable choice for the first time since 1992. My own objective: I'd like to see some competence in the White House. Before 2000, I would have considered this to be a very modest objective.

Patricia Wilson

February 12th, 2008 11:24pm

Don't go away!! Things may be changing despite Clinton's plans. She has been following the OLD method of using the big high populous states and forgetting the small ones. Howard Dean talked about the necessity of including EVERYBODY in the Democratic process and Obama has taken that up as his and Guess what--it's working. Many--myself included--become disenchanted with Clinton when she considers only the big states to be the important ones and one of her advisers constantly repeats it. "we got the important ones; they are the only ones that count". I may come from one of those Big states but I still prefer THE UNITED STATES. I hope Obama continues on his roll of picking up delegates from all the little states and parts of all the BIG ones. If Clinton gets less than 35% of any small state, the delegates all go to Obama. This past weekend he gained all four states and the Virgin Islands to add and will mostlikely get most if not all of them in Virginia, Washington,DC, and Maryland. That puts him almost equal to her in delegates. The "super" ones should go home and wait until June. No one but Clinton is counting on them and they may make some turn away from her since that group of 800 count may make a mess of everyone else's vote. That will put a lot of Democrats against her in either November's general election or in the Congress where the Senators and representatives can make mincemeat of her proposals just to get back at her. She already has many that disapprove of her tactics of wait and then pounce in law making. Obama--according to today's NYTimes--has already put advertisements in Texas and Ohio. Again money is talking and without the slurs and backstabbing so prominent with Bush. Obama may become the nominee without the supers and also president for 2009. What many here and in UK/EU must remember he's not perfect and he's not going to do everything he is hoping to. Even getting half of everything up and running and our image slightly out of the world's mud will be quite an accomplishment. I can't see Clinton doing it. She doesn't have the knowledge or the poise to negotiate with diplomacy and take some but lose others gracefully.


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