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Michael Henderson

Michael Henderson suggests


Reasons for Barack Obama to be cheerful

Wednesday, 6th February 2008

James Forsyth says that Super Tuesday did not give the Illinois senator the mandate he craved. But, with money, time and inspiration on his side, he can still beat Hillary

Can he do it? Well, he won every caucus state which had declared by Wednesday morning and four of the upcoming states are caucuses which play to the enthusiasm and organisational strength of the Obama camp. Three are contests where African Americans will likely make up half of the Democratic primary electorate. The two other states —Virginia and Wisconsin — should also be responsive to Obama’s message, combining as they do liberals and rural voters. He will also be helped by having the endorsement of the governors of both states and the fact that in Virginia, blacks will make up around a third of the electorate. If Obama were to take the vast majority of
the delegates in these states, then he would be well placed to move forward to Ohio and Texas which, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, vote on 4 March. Obama does best where he has campaigned longest and the two-week gap should allow him to barnstorm across these states.

He also, unbelievably, has the financial advantage. He raised almost $20 million more than Hillary in January and few of his smaller donors have reached the $2,300 limit set by campaign finance laws, so he can go back to them, cap in hand. It would be a supreme irony if the supposedly ‘inevitable’ nominee failed for lack of funds.

It used to be presumed that it was Obama, not Hillary, who needed to avoid the knockout blow on Super Tuesday. But the last nine days have been remarkable. Indeed, the slim margins by which Hillary carried several states suggest that if it had been Super Thursday, not Super Tuesday, Obama might now be the definite favourite for the nomination.

Throughout this campaign, Obama has done things which were not meant to be possible in politics any more. More than 20,000 people waited for him patiently in St
Louis on Saturday night, though Mardi Gras was going on. This is not something that is
meant to happen in this era of voter apathy. But the response to Obama’s rhetoric
shows that the public wants to believe in the higher purposes of politics again. Clintonite ‘triangulation’ no longer seems an adequate response to the nation’s problems.

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Bill Murray

February 8th, 2008 8:36pm

"It was meant to be the night that Hillary Clinton was anointed as the Democratic nominee presumptive." This was certainly the presumption very early in the campaign. However, even before South Carolina, it was clear to both pundits and "we the people" that this could easily go all the way to the convention. The outcome of Super Duper Tuesday would have been a surprise a couple of months ago, but it certainly wasn't one on the night. The really good news is that the convention will play its original role for the first time in decades. With the ascendancy of McCain over the usual rabid right wing nutters, America has a real, viable choice for the first time since 1992. My own objective: I'd like to see some competence in the White House. Before 2000, I would have considered this to be a very modest objective.

Patricia Wilson

February 12th, 2008 11:24pm

Don't go away!! Things may be changing despite Clinton's plans. She has been following the OLD method of using the big high populous states and forgetting the small ones. Howard Dean talked about the necessity of including EVERYBODY in the Democratic process and Obama has taken that up as his and Guess what--it's working. Many--myself included--become disenchanted with Clinton when she considers only the big states to be the important ones and one of her advisers constantly repeats it. "we got the important ones; they are the only ones that count". I may come from one of those Big states but I still prefer THE UNITED STATES. I hope Obama continues on his roll of picking up delegates from all the little states and parts of all the BIG ones. If Clinton gets less than 35% of any small state, the delegates all go to Obama. This past weekend he gained all four states and the Virgin Islands to add and will mostlikely get most if not all of them in Virginia, Washington,DC, and Maryland. That puts him almost equal to her in delegates. The "super" ones should go home and wait until June. No one but Clinton is counting on them and they may make some turn away from her since that group of 800 count may make a mess of everyone else's vote. That will put a lot of Democrats against her in either November's general election or in the Congress where the Senators and representatives can make mincemeat of her proposals just to get back at her. She already has many that disapprove of her tactics of wait and then pounce in law making. Obama--according to today's NYTimes--has already put advertisements in Texas and Ohio. Again money is talking and without the slurs and backstabbing so prominent with Bush. Obama may become the nominee without the supers and also president for 2009. What many here and in UK/EU must remember he's not perfect and he's not going to do everything he is hoping to. Even getting half of everything up and running and our image slightly out of the world's mud will be quite an accomplishment. I can't see Clinton doing it. She doesn't have the knowledge or the poise to negotiate with diplomacy and take some but lose others gracefully.


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