Christopher Booker squares up to Sir David King, the former Chief Scientist, whose knowledge of chemistry does little to underpin his crusading rhetoric as a green campaigner
One of the fond delusions of our age is that scientists are a breed apart from ordinary mortals, white-coated custodians of a mystery, with authority to pronounce on any scientific issue,,however far removed it may be from their own field of expertise. A shining example was the status given to Sir David King, who has just retired after seven years as the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser. In 2000, when he was appointed just before the foot-and-mouth crisis, Professor King’s speciality was ‘surface chemistry’. Yet almost immediately top of his agenda was the need to fight an animal disease.
The man he called in to tackle the epidemic in March 2001 was Professor Roy Anderson, a computer modeller specialising in the epidemiology of human diseases but without any experience in veterinary matters. Shutting their ears to the pleas of the world’s leading veterinary experts on foot-and-mouth that the only effective way to stop the spread of the epidemic was vaccination, the two men flouted the law by launching their ‘pre-emptive cull’, the mass-slaughter of animals which never had any contact with the disease. As many as eight million healthy animals were unnecessarily destroyed, at a colossal social and financial cost which vaccination might have reduced to a fraction.
The next big issue to put King in the headlines was global warming, which in 2004 he described as ‘a far greater threat to the world than international terrorism’. He was quoted as claiming that global temperatures were higher than they had been for 60 million years, predicting that by the end of the 21st century, unless drastic measures were taken to curb global warming, Antarctica would be the only habitable continent left on earth.
Top of the politicians’ global warming agenda at that time, led by Blair and the EU, was the need to win ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia, which would at last bring the treaty into force. In July 2004, King led a British team to a key international conference in Moscow, where their behaviour astonished those present. They demanded that scientists critical of Kyoto should not be allowed to speak. They frequently interrupted other speakers, or over-ran their own time at the rostrum. When the tropical disease expert Professor Paul Reiter cited evidence to contradict King’s claim from the rostrum that the melting of the ice on Kilimanjaro was not caused by global warming, King broke off in mid-sentence and left the hall.
At the end Andrei Illarionov, President Putino’s chief economic adviser, was withering about the EU team’s conduct. Their pressure on Russia to ratify Kyoto, he said, ‘was equivalent to a war on truth, science and human welfare’. Russian scientists could not accept the link between CO2 levels and global warming, or that present temperatures were higher than those during the Mediaeval and Roman Warmings, When, in a startling U-turn, Putin then agreed to ratify Kyoto, this did not reflect any change in Russia’s scientific position. As King himself now confirms, it was merely the result of a political deal, whereby the EU agreed to support Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organisation on favourable terms.
King then remained fairly quiet on the public stage until he recently used his status as retiring Chief Scientist to help the government by supporting various of its new policies, ranging from the need for a nuclear power programme to that for a mass-cull of TB-infected badgers to combat the epidemic raging through our cattle herds. And now, in conjunction with a popular journalist, Gabrielle Watson, he has published a mass-market paperback entitled The Hot Topic: How To Tackle Global Warming And Still Keep The Lights On (Bloomsbury, £9.99).
As might be expected from the polar bears on the cover, beneath a glowing tribute from Al Gore, the book yet again rehearses the familiar global warming orthodoxy, set out in a somewhat coy, Janet-and-John style which one suspects owes more to King’s co-author than himself. On those famous polar bears it naturally ignores the studies which show that their numbers have in most areas actually been increasing. An even bigger giveaway is a two-page temperature graph adapted from the notorious ‘hockey stick’. This is the now wholly discredited rewriting of history which became the warmists’ supreme icon because, Winston Smith-like, it suppressed the evidence that in the Middle Ages global temperatures were higher than they are today – showing temperatures running in a flattish line for 1,000 years before suddenly curving exponentially upwards.
It might seem odd that the text goes on to say ‘we haven’t seen warming like this for at least 1,000 years’, because this seems to concede that temperatures might have been as high as they are now a millennium ago – although what makes this even more startling is to recall how, a while back, King himself appeared to be claiming that the world is now hotter than it has been at any time for 60 million years.
In this respect, although it ticks off most of the familiar articles in the warmist litany, this book is careful to downplay some of the crazier excesses of Al Gore’s celebrated disaster movie, as when it concedes that global warming cannot be blamed for those vanishing snows of Kilimanjaro (obviously, after being caught out in Moscow, King must have done some homework). Again and again the book suckers in the reader with some extreme claim, but then cleverly throws in a qualification – as when, like Gore, it uses Hurricane Katrina as evidence of global warming, but then admits later that a part was played in that disaster by the collapsing levees (failing to mention, however, that hurricane activity was more extreme in the 1950s than since). Similarly it exploits the 35,000 deaths caused by the 2003 European heat wave, while later conceding that extreme cold causes more deaths than heat (though even here it cannot resist adding that this may not be of ‘much comfort for those affected by heat’).
As is usual with warmist propaganda, there is scarcely a paragraph where the clued-up reader will not notice some key piece of evidence being omitted, as when, like Gore, the authors refer to the increasing number of times the Thames Flood Barrier has had to be closed, while omitting to tell us that this is because both London and Britain’s east coast are sinking (and that in the droughts of recent years the barrier has had to be closed more often to keep river water in than to keep the sea out).
As also with Gore, however, unwittingly the most comical part of the authors’ argument comes when, having painted as lurid a picture as they dare of the looming apocalypse, they move on, as their subtitle suggests, to outline the steps we must take to avert catastrophe. Yet again we are plunged into thudding bathos, as we are solemnly told that, in order to cut our carbon emissions by 60 percent by 2050, to ensure that global temperatures rise by no more than 2 degrees, we must learn not to leave our TVs on stand-by, switch to low-energy light bulbs, use trains rather than cars and build more wind turbines.
One obvious problem with global warming is that, if the threat it poses is really as serious as the politicians and ‘consensus’ scientists say it is - and if they are also right in their diagnosis of its cause – then mere tinkering about with light bulbs and windmills will not have the slightest effect in preventing it. We should all, including the Chinese who are building two coal-fired power stations a week, have to abandon pretty well everything modern industrial civilisation stands for.
The only possible source of comfort is that the much-vaunted ‘consensus’, carefully manufactured with the aid of skewed computer models and shameless political manipulation, is nothing like so securely based on hard evidence as the politicians and highly-politicised scientists like to believe. As a ‘surface chemist’, Professor King may be a genuine scientist. When he turns his attention to other matters, however, he becomes merely another politician, as the woolly ragbag of unsupported assertions trotted out in this book confirms. It might seem appropriate that, having begun his career as Chief Scientist supporting one immense blunder based on the unreal projections of computer modelling, the good professor should end it on another. Like many another scientist who strays out of his field of expertise, he ends up speaking with no more authority than a man sounding off in the pub.
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Ben
March 6th, 2008 7:41pmThe only effective long term solution is to reduce the size of the human population on our planet. The news that China is abandoning its one-child policy is discouraging. In the Middle East, Africa, South America and Asia populations are expanding at a great rate. Up to now there has been a reliance on sociological laws to curb fertility as living standards rise, but this is clearly not working well enough. Proactive policies to emancipate and empower women are needed in addition.
Kate
March 7th, 2008 1:18amHaha, I loved this. Global Warming is the biggest crock that has faced the world... ever. Fear mongering, money grabbing 'scientists' need to grow a brain and drop the whole thing.
George Steiner
March 7th, 2008 1:29amThere are very few areas of science that aford more than a glimpse into other areas. And surface chemistry is not one of them. But scientific specialisation is not in itself a bad thing. In fact it is necessary. But there are two problems with today's infatuation with scientific infallability. One of them is a lack of public understanding of how science works. The other is the very low standard of general education particulaly in the physical sciences. Both are the result of the highjacking of public education for political reasons. It is a system with positive feed back built in, it will get worse.
Rob Slack
March 7th, 2008 11:11amWhy should we care about the possibility of global warming? The human race will eventually disappear (if only because of global cooling when the sun burns up). Does it matter if the end is in 200 years' time or 10,000,000,000? The only real difference will be the number of people who have been born (and died) before it happens. If it happens in 200 years' time billions of "people" will not be born; will never exist. Why worry about things that never exist?
Tim M
March 7th, 2008 11:16amBen Did you read the article? If so, why are you going on about the only 'solution' being population reduction? Solution to what? The world got colder last year. The actual measured temperatures have disproved the temperature increases forecast by the political warmenists at the UN’s IPCC. 'Man made global warming' is the religious theory that underpins a political movement with political goals. It's nothing to do with science, facts or rationality. Progressives and socialists (now reinvented as tut tutting climate alarmists) have long campaigned for population reduction and cultural suicide to fulfil their anti capitalist day dreams. Turn your patio heaters on, have lots of kids, be happy. And don’t worry, it won’t change the weather.
Andrew Baker
March 7th, 2008 12:07pmWell done--thank God someone is pointing out the absurdity of this stupid man. Prime Minister Lord Salisbury had an anathma towards experts--be they scientists,doctors,priests or soldiers. I would suggest this be as true today as then in Victorian England. Todays papers blithely reprint every press release they receive qouting an "expert". Please keep up your efforts to expose and ridicule this awful state of affairs
John Bull
March 7th, 2008 12:54pmIts good to read another 'debunking' of this great eurovisionist fraudster. When the magnetic lure of incredible taxation funds is eventually withdrawn as politicians are forced to trim back their rapacious demands, we shall perhaps again start to see the emergence of real scientists whose observations are not through the rose tints of their political paymasters. Until then - anything having the 'support' or even tacit agreement of the EU must be regarded as very highly corrupt and probably fraudulent in origin.
chris
March 8th, 2008 12:44amMr Booker should look at the "Dr James E Hansen" site. Sophisticate society plods toward Easter Island.
RHK
March 8th, 2008 7:07amYour opinion of David King may be accurate or not; I do not have the knowledge to judge. But even if the man is a total idiot, this has zero relevance to whether or not global warming is occurring. That can only be judged on the evidence. The trouble with articles like this is they appear to be lead by an unshiftable preconviction. Ironic that this is precisely what they seem to be accusing their opponents of.
Kate: I bow before the irrefutability of your tightly-reasoned argument. In all seriousness I do expect a higher level of debate in what purports to be an intellectual weekly.
THX1138
March 8th, 2008 10:33amHere we go we go more irrational slagging off of of science by a right wing history graduate. What possible expertise do you have to pronounce that the considered scientific opinion of experts like the Royal, Society, The IPCC, The Hadley Centre, The Tyndall Centre & The American Association for the Advancement of Science ( I could go on & on) who all agree that AGW is happening & is a threat to us all. Climatologists maybe wrong about AGW & lets hope so but I know for sure they won't be proved wrong by a newspaper columnist. If they are wrong it will be shown by another climatologist who comes up with a better theory that survives a rigorous process of scrutiny by experts. In the meantime I intend to believe them over Christopher Booker Please tell me how your opinion differs from the man in the pub & why I should believe you over the Royal Society?
Dwight Vandryver
March 10th, 2008 1:12amVirtually unreported in the UK press, this month the Heartland Institute in New York held the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change (Heartland is a non-profit, free-market oriented public policy think tank). About 500 delegates attended comprising climatologists, scientists and other experts. The result was the Manhattan Declaration asserting that global warming is not a global crisis. Thus, there is no general scientific agreement as to the cause of climate change. Most of present day research, with its computer modelling, starts from the presumption that climate change is due to man-made CO2 emissions: an assertion that has yet to be proven. The Conference concluded by declaring that scientific questions should be evaluated solely by the scientific method - in other words, a plea for the return of genuine scientific values based on unbiased objective enquiry. It follows that far more fundamental research, unfettered by preconceived ideas, is urgently required. Realising that climate change, per se, has always occurred, there are three scenarios that need resolving: either it is not influenced at all by mankind, or it is influenced and irreversible, or it is influenced and reversible. The essential fundamental research would determine which one of these cases is correct. If the last case is proved, then a decline in economic growth, and a reduction in standards of living, are a worthy sacrifice. But for either the first or second cases, there has to be a rethink of world's political systems to cope with the mass population migrations that would ensue.
Nick O'Hear
March 10th, 2008 8:07amI live in the Netherlands. Sir David King only had to look here for effective management of Foot and Mouth, where vaccination works well. My neighbours found the British response to this disease beyond comprehension. The Netherlands is also instructive about rising sea levels. I live a couple of metres below sea level. At the current rate of rise (1.8mm/year), in 500 years time I shall live 1 metre further below sea level. I expect to be utterly dry although perfectly dead. I mention this and ask why would anybody expect rising sea levels automatically to flood land? Holland has reclaimed land up to 7 metres below sea level for the last few hundred years. During this entire time the sea has been rising. The science underpinning Global Warming Theory is not strong. The models vary quite wildly in their predictions and fail to model heat transfer between the earth's surface and the troposphere properly. In reality the troposphere is cooler than predicted. The models also don't deal with sunspots which are known to increase the earth surface temperature. For these reasons, the predictive power of the models is questionable but the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) simply averages these predictions as if they were actual measurements. Levels of carbon dioxide and its effect are not all that certain either. Credible chemical measurements in the last 200 years show that atmospheric CO2 levels have been higher than they are now. Ice core data shows that CO2 in the atmosphere follows the earth's temperature with an 800 year lag. For these reasons I don't plan to leave the Netherlands for the cool high ground of Switzerland any time in the next 1000 years.
Dwight Vandryver
March 10th, 2008 10:31amLargely unreported in the UK press, this month the Heartland Institute in New York held the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change (Heartland is a non-profit, free-market oriented public policy think tank). About 500 delegates attended comprising climatologists, scientists and other experts. The result was the Manhattan Declaration that asserted global warming is not a global crisis. Thus, there is no general scientific agreement as to the cause of climate change. Most of present day research, with its computer modelling, starts from the presumption that climate change is due to man-made CO2 emissions: an assertion that has yet to be proved. The Conference concluded by declaring that scientific questions should be evaluated solely by the scientific method - in other words, a plea for the return of genuine scientific values based on unbiased objective enquiry. It follows that far more fundamental research, unfettered by preconceived ideas, is urgently required. Realising that climate change, per se, has always occurred, there are three scenarios that need resolving: either it is not influenced at all by mankind, or it is influenced and irreversible, or it is influenced and reversible. The essential fundamental research would determine which one of these cases is correct. If the last case is proved, then a decline in economic growth, and a reduction in standards of living, are a worthy sacrifice. But for either the first or second cases, there has to be a rethink of world's political systems to cope with the mass population migrations that would ensue.
Richard Lacy
March 10th, 2008 8:42pmIs this Royal Society whose sagacity is lauded by THX1138 the same Royal Society that insisted as late as the end of the 19th century that flight by powered heavier-than-air machines would never be possible?
Nick O'Hear
March 11th, 2008 8:23amRefering to Richard Lacy's commment, the odd thing is that birds and insects, being the only flying machines of the time, were all heavier than air. The sciencists of the time were capable of extreme intellectual blindness. In the end engineers developed heavier than air flight. Of course those in favour of the IPCC will say that it is all different today but where's the evidence?
John Marshall
March 17th, 2008 12:53pmKeep up the good work. As a geologist I can understand the data and can assure you that CO2 has nothing to do with Global warming or climate change. The sun drives climate with Milankovich Cycle modifications. Solar scientists tell us that solar activity is running at a reduced level and we may be entering a Maunder Minimum. If this is true, and I don't doubt these scientists, then lets see how the alarmists explain the plunging temperatures.
Paddy
March 17th, 2008 4:50pmWe have a situation in which a lion's share of research grants are doled out by governments. Those governments have well defined political agendas concerning anthropogenic carbon emissions. What has occurred is that many scientists are acting like politicians. Their "science" has become another form of advocacy in favor of their patrons political agendas. That is how the money changes hands. What else can be expected when scientists loose their moral and ethical compasses.
Pops
March 17th, 2008 9:48pmWhat a terrible web-site. No matter how informative the reading material, how can anyone concentrate on its content with all these flashing advertisements? I’ll not be clicking on YOUR link again.
Philip Lloyd
March 18th, 2008 4:48pmWell done, Christopher B. Sir David King is a good example of the scientist-turned politico, who comes to believe the message in the face of counterevidence. Science won its public acceptance by the fact that its' predictions came true. Few of the IPCC's predictions have come true, and some of them (like the warming of the troposphere) are demonstrably false. The politically drafted "Summaries for Policy Makers" differ in material ways from what the scientists actually said in their reports, and are tendentious in the extreme (whereas the reports are generally not in the least). When the flaws in the earlier predictions of the IPCC become apparent, they eggdance their way to "improved understanding". It is high time this fraud is exposed for what it is, before the politicians seize upon yet another phantasm to tax.
anna v
March 20th, 2008 6:18amLet me give three scientific arguments why global warming is not due to CO2. They all hinge on the self evident statement that the IPCC models, which are the only ones implicating CO2 in the warming, have to be tested against real physical data. If they fail, then their predictions are also nonsense. 1) In paleoclimate data there is absolutely no correlation between temperature and CO2. ( a basic output of the models). Why are they not working then. Also in Ice core data CO2 rise LAGS temperature rise by 800 years or so. It is a cause and not an effect. The models cannot model that. 2) The past ten years, statistically, well measured from satellite temperatures show even a small fall of the global temperature trends. The Models happily predict rising. 3) The green house model as used by the IPCC models NEEDS higher temperature differences by a factor of 2.5 at around 10 k, of the atmosphere. This is absolutely not there, and is the death knoll of this form of computer models, for anybody who has workded with computer modeling. It is the basic premise that makes them a "green house" model, and the data absolutely disputes it. Have a look at http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/devansco2.pdf for damning plots from official data.
Glenn Oliver
September 3rd, 2008 1:19pm"Like many another scientist who strays out of his field of expertise, he ends up speaking with no more authority than a man sounding off in the pub."
Try substituting "journalist" for "scientist".