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No sleep till Denver: Hillary, the unlikely underdog, takes it to the wire

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 5th March 2008

Once the shoo-in candidate, Senator Clinton has re-invented herself and forced Obama to bear the heavy burden of frontrunner. This race could go all the way to the convention, says James Forsyth — which will keep a smile on the face of John McCain

By contrast, with the pressure off, Hillary Clinton is on fine form. In a string of appearances on comedy shows, Hillary has been developing her human side. While on the stump, she has taken questions from voters which allow her to display her unparalleled command of policy. Her campaign has also learnt to cut out, or disguise, some of its more obnoxious habits. Her staffers no longer behave as if they are entitled to adulation and as if the press and the voters were nothing but a nuisance. If Hillary is to capitalise on this opening, she will have to continue to campaign as an underdog and make a point of being the candidate who is most open to voters and the press.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Obama is proving that he is not all hat and no cattle. Before Tuesday, Obama’s numbers always improved as he campaigned in a state and the electorate got to know him. But in both Ohio and Texas his numbers fell back in the final few days before the vote, suggesting that as voters took a last look they wanted more than just words. Among those who made up their minds in the last 72 hours, Hillary won by 20 points in Ohio and 23 points in Texas.

The difficulty for Obama is that though he talks a great deal about the changes he plans to deliver, there’s nothing concrete he can point to in terms of policy. He is ‘the change’, but it’s difficult for him to emphasise this without fanning the feeling that his candidacy is little more than a personality cult. Obama has been explicit that ‘what’s lacking right now is not good ideas’ but a president who can bring people together to get things done. To his mind, that president is him. But after four fairly unexceptional years in the Senate, he has little to offer the stubborn voter who demands proof.

The real winner on Tuesday night was John McCain. Not only did he clinch the Republican nomination but Hillary’s victories guaranteed that the Democratic contest will continue. This gives McCain a chance to raise money and solidify conservative support while the press and the public are distracted by the Democratic contest. It also guarantees that Obama and Clinton will squander a slice of their huge fundraising advantage on attacking each other rather than him. But by far the biggest bonus for McCain is that his general election opponent will be softened up and exhausted over the gruelling weeks ahead.

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jacksmith

March 6th, 2008 10:13am

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: Dear Madam, and Sir, A Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama ticket is what we want. And that is what we need to take back the Whitehouse. We want a smart, tough, idealistic, seasoned veteran of many battles fighting for the American people (Hillary Clinton). With a young, passionate, smart, open-minded, hard-working idealist fighting for the American people (Barrack Obama). The DREAM TEAM! You are both fabulous candidates. And we, the American people are very fortunate to have each of you. Taking back the Whitehouse is critical for the American people, and the world at this time. And I think the American people have been saying loudly, and clearly that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket is the best way to do this. I think the American people have made it very clear that they feel Hillary Clinton is the one best able to lead the ticket against John McCain at this critical, and desperate time in America, and around the world. These dramatic comebacks are testament to Hillary Clinton's skill, and experience as a fighter for the American people. They are also a testament to the strong desire of the American people to have both of you fighting for the American people at this time of midnight in America. Typical of the Clinton's is an uncanny ability to see and understand what the American people want. And then to try and get it for them. Even if they have to go through three political near death experiences to try and get it for the American people. This is classic Clinton's. They are the best I have ever seen. We are desperate out here. Millions of us are suffering greatly. And tens of thousands of us are dying needlessly every year. Men, women, children, and babies. We need help! As Hillary Clinton said "It's not a game". We need the two of you together on our side fighting for us, and for the American dream for all. Not fighting against each other anymore. It's time for you Senator Obama to join forces with Hillary Clinton as her running mate so that we can all focus our energies, and resources on taking back America for the American people. Don't make me hurt you. :-) Sincerely Jacksmith...

Johanna

March 6th, 2008 1:43pm

Very difficult for Clinton to win the nomination, if not mathematically impossible. You can check out the different scenarios at http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/ Obama is expected to win in at least Wyoming and Mississippi... Personally I think the world has had enough of the Clintons and Bushes -time for a real change and not Bill II.

PresidentD

March 7th, 2008 1:17am

For Obama to get down in the mud with Clinton would be as stupid as getting into a knife fight with Jim Bowie. But that's what he's going to have to do. It would appear that these developments will spare us from both an Obama presidency and a second Clinton presidency. Once again, America will luck out.

Thank goodness we can have a run on the pound when we need one

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The movie W. did not provide the crude anti-Bush agitprop that the reviewers craved, says Rod Liddle. This was precisely its strength: we need to get inside the minds even of those we most deplore

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James Forsyth looks back on an extraordinary contest and the victory of a man who, even before his inauguration, has had a transformative effect upon American politics