In Zimbabwe, hope has turned to silent terror
Peter Oborne says that the post-electoral limbo leaves Mugabe with a series of unpalatable options, the armed forces in disarray and Zimbabweans with a sense of grim foreboding
The problem with the idea of a coup d’état is not really the international condemnation that would inevitably result. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) might not like it, but under the prostrate guidance of Thabo Mbeki it would never lift a finger.
The true problem is different: there are real reasons to doubt whether commanders like Shiri (whose Chinese Mig fighters were buzzing low over Bulawayo in an act of naked intimidation when I was there two weeks ago) have the support of their troops. There is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that ordinary soldiers and policemen, even some members of the feared Central Intelligence Organisation, have turned against Mugabe. The director of intelligence, Happyton Bonyongwe, is said to be quietly supporting Tsvangirai.
Mugabe’s second option is to declare the recent elections null and order a re-run. There is strong evidence that the President is preparing the way for this. He is already taking revenge, for example, on the hapless Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, several of whose members have been arrested over the last few days. In a marvellous irony, they are being accused of rigging the result against Zanu PF.
If the President calls a second election, it will be marked by all the intimidation and horror which was to a certain extent lacking on 29 March. Mugabe’s green bombers, his licensed torturers and murderers who bear close comparison to Hitler’s Brownshirts, are already off the leash.
Finally, Mugabe could stand down. Here one key ingredient would be a guarantee that he — and the scores of murderers and torturers who are linked to him — can live the rest of their lives in the peace and tranquillity they have denied so many others. Granting Mugabe immunity from prosecution is hard to engineer and would be unpalatable for some. Others may judge it well worthwhile.
Meanwhile, everyone waits for the old man’s next move. I am told by a friend who runs one of Zimbabwe’s very few remaining factories that the mood among the workforce has changed very sharply over the last 48 hours. Hope has turned to bemusement and then — on Tuesday morning — to a silent, pervasive sense of terror, as if something horrible might be just about to happen.
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Les
April 11th, 2008 10:18amThe final result of the election will be violence and chaos as in Kenya(the bright light of democracy in Africa).
It's the African way.
Familiar Clown
April 11th, 2008 1:35pmThe SADC meetings have always proved a toothless talking shop. Tsvangirai won the elections full stop. It will be up to the concerted efforts of his countrymen and friends in Africa to boot out Mugabe. He will do it, although, at this stage, democracy as an ideal may have to take second place to sheer survival of the masses.
Mike D
April 15th, 2008 2:44pmThis all had to happen.
The 1980 elections were not even vaguely free and fair. The Rhodesian security forces were confined to their bases. Mugabe's terrorist army was not similarly confined to assembly points. Where it was meant to be. Followers were, yes. The hard core were in the townships and the rural areas terrorizing the black population. Doing what they had done throughout the bush war. Killing the headmen, raping their women, mutilating their cattle. Instilling into them the belief that they would know who they voted for and their fate if it was not for Mugabe's Zanu PF.
Soames, Carrington et al were not interested. They wanted out. In any fashion that could be papered over to look respectable. And to be shot of the whole mess. Nigerian oil and a happy Commonwealth were what mattered to them. Not 275 000 whites and a few million blacks. Or what was just.
Mugabe will soon go. But that a minor part of the problem. If Zimbabwe wants to be where it was in the 1990's one thing has to happen. Its agricultural industry has to be reinstated. Which means white farmers, capital and guarantees of safety and security. None of these will happen. Another Zambia, perhaps, and nothing more.