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Obama needs to knock Hillary out — and quick

Wednesday, 23rd April 2008

Hillary Clinton’s big win in the Pennsylvania primary has drawn attention to four main weaknesses in Barack Obama’s appeal, says James Forsyth

Hillary Clinton did not have to wait until 3 a.m. for the call telling her that she had won the Pennsylvania primary. Within an hour of the polls closing, the news networks had declared her the winner and by the end of the night she had secured a double-digit lead, handily beating the spread set for her by the media.

Pennsylvania was always going to be Hillary’s kind of state; its demographics play to her strengths. There are a smaller percentage of the groups with whom Barack Obama is strongest — blacks and college graduates — and an above average number of over 65s, with whom Clinton generally does well. On top of that, the median household income is only a little more than $46,000 a year, making the state receptive to Clinton’s economic message.

For this reason, a win wasn’t enough for Hillary — she had to win big, and that she did, despite Obama outspending her by more than two to one in the two biggest ‘media markets’ in the state.

Of course, Obama remains the overwhelming favourite to be the Democratic nominee. His lead among pledged delegates is, even after Tuesday, insurmountable. But his campaign now has four major problems. First, the protracted primary campaign is making Obama a weaker general election candidate. In the six weeks since the last set of contests, three stories have gained prominence that will cause Obama significant problems. There’s the Reverend Wright affair, then there’s Obama’s comment about how small-town Americans cling to God and guns and last, his connection to the former terrorist Bill Ayers. Each comment has undercut Obama’s national appeal.

Jeremiah Wright is Obama’s friend and pastor; the title of Obama’s political manifesto, The Audacity of Hope, is taken from a Wright sermon. So the revelation that Wright’s sermons have included the line ‘God damn America’ and the idea that 9/11 was America’s chickens coming home to roost and that the US government manufactured the Aids virus as a form of social control has taken some of the sheen off Obama’s ‘post-racial’ appeal. The consolation for Obama is that the Revd Wright controversy is so tied up with the history of race in America that the McCain campaign is loath to touch it. However, McCain has no such inhibitions regarding Obama’s comments about bitter small-town folk clinging to God and guns. The Republican machine will use this line to portray Obama as an out-of-touch elitist. Forget Obama the community organiser, the child of a single mum and a dead-beat dad — instead think of Obama the Harvard Law graduate and arugula-eating academic.

More articles from: James Forsyth | this section

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murray

April 24th, 2008 9:25am

"You can say that this is just politics, but the whole point of Obama was that he was going to take us beyond that."
The mystery to me, is how so many otherwise bright people let themselves be taken in by Mr. Obama in the first place. What in his political resume leads one to the conclusion that he was ever anything other than a typical politician-and one far to the left of the American electorate at that?
There has been much written in the last 2 days about American racism, but how do you think Mr. Obama would have fared in this primary if he didn't have the melanin in his pigment that he inherited from his father?

Nuked

April 24th, 2008 10:51pm

Careful Murray! The sentiments in your last paragraph were pretty much expressed by Geraldine Ferraro and she was pilloried for it. Personally, I'm looking forward to the Messiah being creamed by McCain. Bitter, moi?

Ian C

April 25th, 2008 1:51pm

You have hit the nail on the head - " he does not have .. a clinching argument". He opened a debate he could not close - new politics. Noone is interested except the Bush hating media. He is a black in a white constituency. He is as far left a candidate as has stood for the US presidency and the Americans are not that sort of left. He is a college lecturer and voluntary social worker - he has never run anything. He is unelectable and the Clintons know it. If by some miracle he is elected it will be another example of media controlling savviness, per Tony Blair & Alastair Campbell, and will unravel faster than Jimmy Carter.

Tariq

April 25th, 2008 2:28pm

First, Hillary won PA by just over nine percent, not double digits. More importantly, whoever the Democratic nominee is (and it's always foolish to bet against a Clinton), he or she will enjoy smooth sailing between the convention and November, for the election campaign proper will reveal McCain for what he is: an erstwhile maverick handcuffed to Bush's disastrous presidency, and with no idea where to take the country except into Iran.

Mark Musoke

April 25th, 2008 6:33pm

Apart from the obvious how different is he really from Bill Clinton or Tony Blair? These men are great orators who made us all feel warm inside; consumate actors. They have neither depth nor sincerity. Yet thousands of us hypocrites still sing the Silver haired ones's and the Cheshire Cat's praises. It is all political spin, that is very obvious. Had Blair actually "run" anything before 1997? Oh yes, the very "New" Labour....What really matters is the people who are assembled around a figurehead. We have all see the dangers of recruiting strident, zealous, idealists (Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld et al). Strong political leadership benefits from some inexperience; young candidates appear naive. It is this ignorance which breeds originality and sometimes ugly doggedness to challenge received wisdom and the media hegemony. That is what a candidate should really be judged on.

Laura

April 29th, 2008 2:09pm

"The problem for Obama is that most Americans can’t conceive of living in a neighbourhood where there’s a guy who played a role in the bombing of the Pentagon." Problem? What problem?

It's perfect common sense. Would you want to live next door to someone who tried to blow up Sandhurst?

It has been astonishing to see publications such as The Spectator and The Daily Telegraph fielding so many Obama cheerleaders. Some of them are permanent commentators - not just airheads like Venetia Thompson with her Othello comparisons. When did Othello sympathise with someone who undermined his own army.

All we're seeing now is a bunch of very silly people trying to pretend they haven't got egg on their face. What a farce.

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