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Obama needs to knock Hillary out — and quick

Wednesday, 23rd April 2008

Hillary Clinton’s big win in the Pennsylvania primary has drawn attention to four main weaknesses in Barack Obama’s appeal, says James Forsyth

In this effort to portray Obama as out of the mainstream, Bill Ayers will have a central role to play. Ayers is an unrepentant former member of the Weather Underground, a violent leftist group that set off bombs at the Pentagon and elsewhere during the Vietnam war. A white child of privilege, Ayers represents the kind of leftism that drove Americans into Dick Nixon’s arms; in 1972, the year of the Pentagon bombing, the Democrats only carried one state in the presidential election. Ayers is now an academic in Chicago and he and Obama are, in the words of Obama’s chief strategist, ‘certainly friendly’. When asked about this connection in a recent debate, an exasperated Obama argued that he was eight at the time of the Pentagon bombing and that Ayers is just ‘a guy who lives in my neighbourhood’. The problem for Obama is that most Americans can’t conceive of living in a neighbourhood where there’s a guy who played a role in the bombing of the Pentagon.

The second problem for Obama is that his supporters keep implying that Hillary is running a Republican campaign, pointing to her ads invoking Osama bin Laden and her efforts to portray Obama as an elitist. But if she is guilty as charged, that should really worry the super-delegates (who will have to decide the nomination). After all, a ‘Republican campaign’ just beat Obama by a double-digit margin in a Democratic primary in a state that the party can’t win the White House without. The political importance of Pennsylvania is demonstrated by the fact that President Bush visited it more than any other state apart from Texas in his first term. And he was prepared in defiance of WTO rules and his own free-trade principles to slap tariffs on imported steel in an unsuccessful attempt to bring Pennsylvania into the Republican column.

The third problem is that there’s a slim chance that the Clinton campaign might just be able to pull ahead of Obama in some measures of the popular vote and thus have grounds to convince super-delegates that they should throw the nomination to her. (Calculating the popular vote is nigh on impossible both because there’s a debate over whether the Florida and Michigan contests, which were not sanctioned by the party, should be included, and because many caucus states do not release raw voting totals.)

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murray

April 24th, 2008 9:25am

"You can say that this is just politics, but the whole point of Obama was that he was going to take us beyond that."
The mystery to me, is how so many otherwise bright people let themselves be taken in by Mr. Obama in the first place. What in his political resume leads one to the conclusion that he was ever anything other than a typical politician-and one far to the left of the American electorate at that?
There has been much written in the last 2 days about American racism, but how do you think Mr. Obama would have fared in this primary if he didn't have the melanin in his pigment that he inherited from his father?

Nuked

April 24th, 2008 10:51pm

Careful Murray! The sentiments in your last paragraph were pretty much expressed by Geraldine Ferraro and she was pilloried for it. Personally, I'm looking forward to the Messiah being creamed by McCain. Bitter, moi?

Ian C

April 25th, 2008 1:51pm

You have hit the nail on the head - " he does not have .. a clinching argument". He opened a debate he could not close - new politics. Noone is interested except the Bush hating media. He is a black in a white constituency. He is as far left a candidate as has stood for the US presidency and the Americans are not that sort of left. He is a college lecturer and voluntary social worker - he has never run anything. He is unelectable and the Clintons know it. If by some miracle he is elected it will be another example of media controlling savviness, per Tony Blair & Alastair Campbell, and will unravel faster than Jimmy Carter.

Tariq

April 25th, 2008 2:28pm

First, Hillary won PA by just over nine percent, not double digits. More importantly, whoever the Democratic nominee is (and it's always foolish to bet against a Clinton), he or she will enjoy smooth sailing between the convention and November, for the election campaign proper will reveal McCain for what he is: an erstwhile maverick handcuffed to Bush's disastrous presidency, and with no idea where to take the country except into Iran.

Mark Musoke

April 25th, 2008 6:33pm

Apart from the obvious how different is he really from Bill Clinton or Tony Blair? These men are great orators who made us all feel warm inside; consumate actors. They have neither depth nor sincerity. Yet thousands of us hypocrites still sing the Silver haired ones's and the Cheshire Cat's praises. It is all political spin, that is very obvious. Had Blair actually "run" anything before 1997? Oh yes, the very "New" Labour....What really matters is the people who are assembled around a figurehead. We have all see the dangers of recruiting strident, zealous, idealists (Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld et al). Strong political leadership benefits from some inexperience; young candidates appear naive. It is this ignorance which breeds originality and sometimes ugly doggedness to challenge received wisdom and the media hegemony. That is what a candidate should really be judged on.

Laura

April 29th, 2008 2:09pm

"The problem for Obama is that most Americans can’t conceive of living in a neighbourhood where there’s a guy who played a role in the bombing of the Pentagon." Problem? What problem?

It's perfect common sense. Would you want to live next door to someone who tried to blow up Sandhurst?

It has been astonishing to see publications such as The Spectator and The Daily Telegraph fielding so many Obama cheerleaders. Some of them are permanent commentators - not just airheads like Venetia Thompson with her Othello comparisons. When did Othello sympathise with someone who undermined his own army.

All we're seeing now is a bunch of very silly people trying to pretend they haven't got egg on their face. What a farce.


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