Hillary Clinton’s big win in the Pennsylvania primary has drawn attention to four main weaknesses in Barack Obama’s appeal, says James Forsyth
The real worry for the Obama campaign is not that the super-delegates would do this — denying an African-American who has won the most delegates the Democratic nomination would rupture the Democratic voting coalition for good — but that a brutal, and perhaps self-fulfilling, case against Obama’s electability would be made in public just months before the general election. Certainly, the Pennsylvania exit polls contained some alarming numbers for Obama. He lost with whites in every age group, and among whites without a college degree — a key swing-voter demographic — he trailed by 37 points. Only 53 per cent of Clinton voters say they would vote for Obama in November.
The last problem for Obama is that he is tarnishing his own brand. What made him so appealing was that he did not seem to be a conventional politician. He appeared to be genuinely thoughtful and in earnest about his desire to bring America, which has been repeatedly sliced and diced by political operatives for the past 14 years, back together. But this has gone out the window. Instead, Obama has become an almost permanent panderer to the worst instincts of the Democratic primary electorate, peddling protectionist snake oil and announcing plans for withdrawal from Iraq that have as much connection to the reality on the ground as Donald Rumsfeld’s pre-war planning did. He has also descended from the moral high ground right into the gutter. In many ways, his campaign in Pennsylvania was more negative than Clinton’s and he regularly distorts McCain’s statements for partisan advantage. You can say that this is just politics, but the whole point of Obama was that he was going to take us beyond that.
There is one way for Obama to stop the bleeding: he must win decisively in Indiana and North Carolina on 6 May. If he did this, he would create huge pressure both politically and financially on Clinton to drop out — she is spending a $1.10 for every $1 she brings in. But if Obama is to do this, he needs to come up with a closing argument. He has a compelling introductory statement about who he is and how politics is broken. But what he does not have is a clinching argument, which is why he cannot seal the deal. He’s already missed chances to knock Hillary out in New Hampshire and Texas. If he misses a third, he might find himself too bloodied to win in November.
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murray
April 24th, 2008 9:25am"You can say that this is just politics, but the whole point of Obama was that he was going to take us beyond that."
The mystery to me, is how so many otherwise bright people let themselves be taken in by Mr. Obama in the first place. What in his political resume leads one to the conclusion that he was ever anything other than a typical politician-and one far to the left of the American electorate at that?
There has been much written in the last 2 days about American racism, but how do you think Mr. Obama would have fared in this primary if he didn't have the melanin in his pigment that he inherited from his father?
Nuked
April 24th, 2008 10:51pmCareful Murray! The sentiments in your last paragraph were pretty much expressed by Geraldine Ferraro and she was pilloried for it. Personally, I'm looking forward to the Messiah being creamed by McCain. Bitter, moi?
Ian C
April 25th, 2008 1:51pmYou have hit the nail on the head - " he does not have .. a clinching argument". He opened a debate he could not close - new politics. Noone is interested except the Bush hating media. He is a black in a white constituency. He is as far left a candidate as has stood for the US presidency and the Americans are not that sort of left. He is a college lecturer and voluntary social worker - he has never run anything. He is unelectable and the Clintons know it. If by some miracle he is elected it will be another example of media controlling savviness, per Tony Blair & Alastair Campbell, and will unravel faster than Jimmy Carter.
Tariq
April 25th, 2008 2:28pmFirst, Hillary won PA by just over nine percent, not double digits. More importantly, whoever the Democratic nominee is (and it's always foolish to bet against a Clinton), he or she will enjoy smooth sailing between the convention and November, for the election campaign proper will reveal McCain for what he is: an erstwhile maverick handcuffed to Bush's disastrous presidency, and with no idea where to take the country except into Iran.
Mark Musoke
April 25th, 2008 6:33pmApart from the obvious how different is he really from Bill Clinton or Tony Blair? These men are great orators who made us all feel warm inside; consumate actors. They have neither depth nor sincerity. Yet thousands of us hypocrites still sing the Silver haired ones's and the Cheshire Cat's praises. It is all political spin, that is very obvious. Had Blair actually "run" anything before 1997? Oh yes, the very "New" Labour....What really matters is the people who are assembled around a figurehead. We have all see the dangers of recruiting strident, zealous, idealists (Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld et al). Strong political leadership benefits from some inexperience; young candidates appear naive. It is this ignorance which breeds originality and sometimes ugly doggedness to challenge received wisdom and the media hegemony. That is what a candidate should really be judged on.
Laura
April 29th, 2008 2:09pm"The problem for Obama is that most Americans can’t conceive of living in a neighbourhood where there’s a guy who played a role in the bombing of the Pentagon." Problem? What problem?
It's perfect common sense. Would you want to live next door to someone who tried to blow up Sandhurst?
It has been astonishing to see publications such as The Spectator and The Daily Telegraph fielding so many Obama cheerleaders. Some of them are permanent commentators - not just airheads like Venetia Thompson with her Othello comparisons. When did Othello sympathise with someone who undermined his own army.
All we're seeing now is a bunch of very silly people trying to pretend they haven't got egg on their face. What a farce.