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Sunday 5 July 2009

Obama failed this week as well as Clinton

James Forsyth says that Hillary’s disappointment in Tuesday’s primaries is matched by the decline in Obama’s image, as the sheen of the wunderkind fades and doubts multiply

Barack Obama entered the arena on Tuesday night to Bruce Springsteen’s ‘The Rising’. But a more appropriate song would have been ‘You Can’t Always Get What You Want’ by the Rolling Stones. For although Obama did not get the two victories he wanted (in Indiana and North Carolina) to knock Hillary out of the race, he got what he needed: a far bigger win in North Carolina than Hillary Clinton achieved in Indiana. So after these two contests, Obama is within touching distance of the nomination — indeed, much of the media is now ready to declare him the nominee — and he can expect a steady flow of the all-important super-delegates to declare for him in the coming days. To be sure of the nomination, Obama needs two things: to be ahead in pledged delegates and ahead in the popular vote. In these circumstances and short of an awful scandal, the super-delegates would neither wish to nor dare to deny Obama the nomination.

The significance of Obama’s margin in North Carolina and Hillary’s failure to run up one in Indiana is that it should ensure that Obama is ahead in the popular vote as well as the delegate count at the end of this process on 3 June. If he is not, then the party would be subject to an unbelievably divisive argument. The Clintons would contend that Obama’s lead in pledged delegates was illegitimate as it had came from caucuses which disenfranchise their supporters. One Clinton staffer I spoke to this week was positively giddy about sending GIs out to make this argument (serving GIs could not vote in the caucuses, which require you to be physically present at a set place at a set time). But after Tuesday, this window has closed for the Clinton campaign — and Hillary’s subdued manner in her victory speech (in stark contrast to her barnstorming campaigning in recent days) suggests she knows it. Her decision to cancel her appearances on the morning shows on Wednesday tells the same story.

While the Clintons’ failure to change the course of the nominating process is the main message of these primaries, it is important to remember that Obama has failed too. His campaign predicted it would win Indiana and lost — the first time that this has happened. Obama’s failure to seal the deal is personal. A vote for president, the head of state, is not really about party politics; everything from the candidate’s family to his manner of speaking is taken into account. After all, the American people are inviting this person into their living-room for the next four years. The polling question about which candidate you would rather have a beer with is much mocked, but it gets at an important truth. For many voters, feeling comfortable with a candidate is as important as the precise details of their policy positions.

More articles from: James Forsyth | this section

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