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An inconvenient truth

Wednesday, 30th April 2008

The Spectator on the Israeli airstrike on a Syrian nuclear facility

US officials also revealed that they did not know about the reactor until the Israelis informed them about it. The Americans have been frantically searching Iraq for WMD for five years, and have 100,000 troops in the country, along with all manner of intelligence assets. Yet it now seems that a nuclear reactor was being built only 90 miles over the border, near the village of At Tibnah in the Dayr az Zawr region — and the US didn’t know about it until somebody else tipped them off. This embarrassing disclosure will only encourage those nations and terrorist groups which want to pursue covert WMD programmes.

The most worrying conclusion to be drawn from this episode, however, is that America remains fundamentally impotent in the face of North Korea’s nuclear proliferation. The Syrian reactor may have been destroyed, but North Korea has faced no additional sanctions or penalties for the criminal activities that led to its initial construction. This is proof, yet again, that once a state has gone nuclear the international community cannot truly hold it to account for its actions. This remains the soundest argument for the much-derided doctrine of pre-emption: once a state acquires nuclear capacity, it is axiomatically too late to do much about it.

This brings us to the subject that dare not speak its name in British politics: Iran. Contrary to what may have been suggested by the US National Intelligence Estimate late last year — an example of politicised intelligence if ever there was one — Tehran has not abandoned its nuclear ambitions. At some point further down the line, if sanctions and other such options do not work, military action may yet have to be contemplated.

Only a fool would disregard the terrible consequences of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such a mission should not even be considered except as a matter of absolute last resort. Equally, however, only a fool would disregard the consequences of allowing Iran to go nuclear. As North Korea’s co-operation with Syria demonstrates, once a state has nuclear weapons it has a terrifying degree of freedom on the international stage. How would the West stop a nuclear Iran from stepping up its support for the terrorists of Hamas and Hezbollah, or attempting forcibly to expand its influence in the Gulf? The war on terror — or whatever you wish to call it — and the perils posed by rogue states and WMD will not go away when George W. Bush leaves office. North Korea will not be inspired to disarm by (say) Barack Obama’s inaugural address; nor will the Iranians suddenly decide to abandon their decades-long attempt to develop a nuclear capability. Al-Qa’eda and those who have absorbed its murderous ideology will continue to seek access to the world’s deadliest weapon. These problems will be with us for much longer than any commander-in-chief.

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Ed Smithe

May 1st, 2008 2:31pm

Given the inability of US intelligence to locate a supposed nuclear facility that was on the shores of a major river running through Syria (a facility that can be found rather easily on Google Maps) should give one pause before declaring the new US analysis "a slam dunk." Moreover, as has been reported in Washington, CIA officials have, on the record, completely mischaracterized the ability and the timeframe of that same facility to produce fissionable material. As you might have written, 'only a fool' would discount these troubling turns in this rather bizarre case.

Of the serious observers out there, I don't know of anyone who underplays the threat that these rogue states pose to the US and its allies. That threat, or rather risk, does not however exist in a vacuum. Currently, the US is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. al Qaeda operates with ease out of the Western Provinces of a nuclear armed nation that could, at any moment, collapse. And yet, the lesson that you choose to take from all of this is that Iran and Syria are the most pressing issues of the day.

Unfortunately, we in the US do not possess unlimited power. Because of the choices (both political and military) that we have made over the last seven years, there is very little flexibility left to realistically contemplate your so-called "last resort."

Perhaps this is a good lesson for you and others to learn, that in this rather troubling world that we live in, to borrow a phrase from Mr. Jagger, 'you can't always get what you want.'

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