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Labour politicians are already preparing for opposition. The race to succeed Gordon is on

Fraser Nelson

Wednesday, 30th April 2008

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

Over lunch about a year ago, I tried to tease out the intentions of someone tipped as a possible successor to Gordon Brown. He was feigning optimism and loyalty to the anointed leader-in-waiting, so I advanced some hypothetical scenarios involving various MPs being run over by buses. So would he maybe...

‘Me? God, no,’ he replied, cutting me off. ‘Forget it. As soon as this party gets into opposition then — boof.’ He mimed an explosion with his hands. ‘Trust me. The queue to be Labour’s William Hague will not be a long one.’

Here were two striking assumptions: that Mr Brown was certain to lose, and that the Labour coalition would fast unravel. This, it must be said, is the minority view. Until quite recently, most Labour MPs believed they would defeat David Cameron — but even now, those who grudgingly concede the possibility of defeat think that Labour’s spell in opposition would be short-lived. The talk is of Mr Cameron being a 21st-century version of Edward Heath, and of Labour taking a ‘short bath’ — a refreshing dip on the opposition benches followed by a return to business as usual and another decade or so of progressive governance.

Although it doesn’t do to admit it, Mr Brown’s departure in the reasonably foreseeable future has always been on the cards. Soon after he entered No. 10, the Prime Minister’s aides would say privately that he would fight just one election. Even he recognised he could not plausibly promise to lead Britain to the end of the next decade. If the Brown formula succeeded then Ed Balls, his protégé and author of his better ideas, would have a reasonable claim to succeed him. ‘Look at the sheer pace of what Ed’s doing, tearing up A-levels with minimal consultation,’ says one Cabinet minister. ‘This has obviously been planned for years.’

What was not planned was the fastest opinion poll collapse suffered by any prime minister since Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich. The needle of probability in British politics — which seldom points to any one outcome for more than a few weeks — is currently veering towards a Labour defeat and a vacancy for leader of the opposition.

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Victor Newman

May 2nd, 2008 4:44pm

This article assumes that anyone actually knows how to operationalise the "formula of market-based reforms on public services" without changing the political structure of the UK. At the moment there are too many competing bodies involved with poorly-defined roles, the bodies involved have failed to synthesise the lessons, decided the scale, and identified the political level of leverage required, and the scale of change required for ROI.

jon livesey

May 3rd, 2008 1:35am

All Maggie had to do was to remove the dead hand of Government from the economy, and after that it revived itself.

Imagining that anyone has to "know" how to apply market-based reforms to public services is to give in to the idea that someone has to "manage" a free market.

Remove the dead hand of Government and health and eduction will revive themselves, just as Telecommunications, Steel, the City and Aerospace did.

It won't be pretty, but it will happen.

Stephen

May 3rd, 2008 10:13am

If a week is a long time in politics two years is an awful long time. This Labour government are not finished by a long way. There are still plenty of talented people there. As for the Tories well they still have a long way to go. Watch this space.

Barry Holmes

May 4th, 2008 6:37am

Ed Balls yes a big left winger and one who together with his wife have one of the biggest expense claims with in parliament
which to me is indicative of his character.

dirty european socialist

June 5th, 2008 9:59am

I predict labour will win the next election. The PM has great mental strenght and intellgence. Look at the way he recovered from losing an eye to get a double first. An he lost a child recntely but still was not broken. He is never broekn and never gives in,. He our leader. He is very mentally strong, intelligent and has good christian moral values. I think he will rise back and win like he allways does. Do not underestimate him.