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Sunday 7 September 2008

Labour politicians are already preparing for opposition. The race to succeed Gordon is on

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

Labour’s Left will, by contrast, be largely intact and ready for mischief. And when they come to choose a leader, it will be decided by Labour’s electoral college system which gives a third of votes to MPs, a third to party members and a third to the unions. Such a formula bodes ill for anyone regarded as a neo-Blairite, and in effect eliminates the chances of a Blairite restoration. The elements of the Labour party which Mr Blair could not tame are going to be proportionately stronger after defeat.

Lord Desai remarked last week that Gordon Brown was ‘put on earth to remind people how good Tony Blair was’. One could argue that Mr Blair’s purpose on this planet was to make us forget how fractious the Labour party really is. Throughout its history it has been the party of splits and the Conservatives have been the party of discipline and electoral success. The Blair era was therefore the anomaly in Labour’s 115-year history, where this polarity was reversed. In his absence, Labour’s tribal conflicts are re-emerging and re-asserting themselves.

The parliamentary rebellion on the 10p tax and the wave of strikes offer a taste of the trouble to come. There are the Old Labour beasts, who naively thought Mr Brown would expunge the private sector and private sector practices entirely from public services. The orphaned Blairites apply an intellectual critique but lack numbers to make much of an impression. The 100-odd Labour MPs facing redundancy are generally the most biddable. So the 250-odd Labour MPs who would remain after a Cameron victory would be, almost by definition, an unruly lot.

So who would try to lead them? David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, has the most support in the Cabinet at present, mainly thanks to suspicion that Mr Balls is already on manoeuvres. The Schools Secretary’s policies, colleagues argue, are aimed not at voters but Labour’s selectorate (think of his draconian approach to the national school admissions policy, a tactic designed to gladden the hearts of the Labour Left). Alan Johnson, the Health Secretary and Jack Straw, Justice Secretary, are mentioned as ‘unity candidates’ by those who fear civil war. James Purnell, the Work and Pensions Secretary, is keeping quiet enough to be considered should the frontrunners destroy each other before the race begins.

Precisely 11 years ago this week, six candidates entered the Tory leadership race in what most outsiders regarded as a doomed mission. Mr Hague says he didn’t fully grasp the hopelessness of his task until four years later. So who will be Labour’s answer to the William Hague of 1997? I suspect my luncheon partner was wrong, and that the queue to succeed Gordon Brown will be strikingly long. And for those with an eye to see it, the jostling has already begun.

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