Fairly heavy rain fell at Cheltenham overnight and there is a lot more to come today. If there is anything near the predicted 30mm of the wet stuff over 24 hours, the ground could easily turn to heavy which, whether racing is over jumps or the flat, tends to make the results something of a lottery. Of course, punters have to concentrate on horses that have won or run well in very soft conditions but it is not always as simple as that.
Today’s Grade 2 Schloer Chase (2.55 p.m.) is an intriguing contest and sees the return of Jonbon, who is trying to win this race for the third year running. Nicky Henderson’s admirable chaser will not mind the soft ground but he has never been his best at Cheltenham.
Jonbon’s overall record under rules is impressive, winning of 18 of his 23 starts and being second in the other five. However, four of those runner-up runs came at Cheltenham and that makes odds-on prices easy to resist.
L’Eau du Sud, from the in-form Dan Skelton yard, has attracted plenty of support and he will relish the rain but, once again, odds of around 3-1 are skinny. Neither Libberty Hunter or Matata are out of it on their best form but for me this is a race to watch and enjoy.
On day one of the three-day November meeting, I would rather back ELDORADO ALLEN even though he is just weeks away from his twelfth birthday. He’s gone well fresh on each of his last three seasonal debuts and trainer Joe Tizzard’s gelding has dropped to a nice rating of 142 from a career high mark of 166 three years ago.
Back him 1 point each way at 8-1 in the Unibet Middle Distance Veterans’ Chase Series (1.45 p.m.). That price is being offered by most bookies, all paying three places in a nine-runner race, but William Hill are paying a quarter odds, not a fifth, for the place so back him with that layer.
I put up Bad each way a week ago at 16-1 for tomorrow’s Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.) but I wasn’t expecting the heavens to open at that point as most of his best form is on decent ground. He has drifted in the betting market as the weather forecast deteriorated this week so I go into the race with hope rather than expectation.
In tomorrow’s Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (3.30 p.m.), I will take a chance on ROYAL RAMBLER being fit enough to do himself justice despite a 245-day absence from the racetrack. Trainer Emma Lavelle has got horses like Ma Shantou fit enough to win first time this season and this five-year-old gelding has plenty of scope for improvement, particularly on his favoured soft or heavy ground. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with bet365, paying four places.
However, I will go into this race double handed as Harry Cobden is an interesting jockey booking for handler Christian Williams, who is a fine target trainer and he looks to have lined up LAST RODEO for this contest after a prep run at Cheltenham last month, when he was badly hampered by a faller early on. Last Rodeo is another horse that likes plenty of cut in the ground and so back him 1 point each way at 14-1 with bet365 or Paddy Power, paying four places.
At the time of writing, I don’t know the 48-hour declarations for Sunday’s card so I will have to leave it alone from a tipping point of view. Sadly, my original ante-post bet Wilful in a non-runner in the Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (3.30 p.m.), presumably after a setback as connections had long been targeting him at this race and he had run so well in his prep race, the Dragonbet Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow.
Anyway, with heavy ground distinctly possible for much of the three-day November meeting, my main advice is to keep stakes low.
Pending:
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 8-1 for the Unibet Middle Distance Veterans’ Chase, paying ¼ odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bad at 16-1 for Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Royal Rambler at 16-1 for the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle , paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Last Rodeo at 14-1 for the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle , paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Wilful at 10-1 for Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 4 points
1 point each way Our Power at 9-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Fell. – 2 points.
1 point each way Jet Plane at 14-1 for the Grand Sefton, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 11.5 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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