Gary Kent

‘Kurdexit’ would make Brexit look strong and stable

Last week, American, British and UN diplomats tried to persuade the Kurds in Iraq to delay their referendum on independence. This high-profile intervention came amid a swirl of fiery rhetoric from other actors, especially Iran. The diplomats haven’t convinced the Kurdistani leadership, however, and so the vote will happen a week today – barring some last minute deal.

The diplomats argued that the referendum will divide those fighting Daesh and destabilise the region. The Kurds argued that political divisions at home or with Baghdad have not hampered fighting Daesh. Besides, Kurdistani leaders are seeking a popular mandate for negotiating an amicable divorce with Baghdad over five or even ten years, rather than a sudden unilateral declaration of independence.

Observers seem surprised that no country save Israel says it would recognise an independent Kurdistan, although America and Britain say they understand Kurdish aspirations and won’t end their bilateral relations. The truth is that old states rarely advocate new states, especially when they seize the opportunity and win recognition. Kurdistan is landlocked between Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, which many Kurds often describe as the four wolves. Right now, Kurdistani leaders believe these neighbours are less able or willing to resist independence.

The impetus for Kurdish independence is understandable – and so it is probably only a matter of time before it happens. Kurds have only been equal in Iraq for ten years in a century of discrimination which lead to genocide in the 1980s, an event formally recognised by the House of Commons. The Kurds initially did well after Saddam Hussein was deposed, and they won a federal constitution in 2005 which promised to share power and resources equitably. They were ‘The Other Iraq’ as long as the country remained federal, democratic and pluralist – and a golden decade of growth transformed Kurdistan.

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