Alex Massie Alex Massie

A Bluegrass Lament for Obama?

Matt Zeitlin says the idea that Obama “needs” to win Appalachia is “just wrong”. And, of course, he has a point when he writes that “It’s just true that Obama doesn’t need the states that the media keeps on telling the Democrats they need to focus on. If Obama can win the Kerry states and flip Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, he has the election.”

Nonetheless, that’s a hefty “if”. Theoretically, Ohio should be a can’t lose proposition for Democrats this year. Pennsylvania may be too. But…

The issue, however, is not one of “must win states” but of how wide a front Obama is going to fight on. The logic of Howard Dean’s sensible “50 state” strategy is that conceding any region of the country makes your candidate’s task very much more difficult: you reduce your margin of error or mishap. in such circumstances you then need to win all or almost all of the toss-up states. (The GOP’s crippling weakness in the north-east is, of course, the flipside of this problem and one that makes their chances of retaining the Presidency, let alone regaining either the House or Senate that much more difficult. If I were a GOP strategist this would keep me awake…)

So the idea that Obama shouldn’t worry about West Virginia, Kentucky or Tennessee because he can make up any losses there with wins in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada is wrong. It’s not an either/or situation. A compelling candidate should be able to fight in the south-west and along the Appalachian trail. Long-term trends support targetting the Mountain West, but that doesn’t mean Obama can cede the white working class now. (Though in fact, I’d also suggest that in a general election facing McCain, Hillary would be just as vulnerable as Obama is amongst white working-class men.)

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