Reports from Tahrir Square are very confused. There is a firm body of opinion who doubt the ‘tough cookie’ Mubarak would have stood aside. Many suspect that today’s announcements are a ruse designed to strengthen his position. As Richard Ottaway put it, ‘Ill believe it when I see it.’
Meanwhile, others report the Mubarak has been pushed or ‘been resigned’. The Foreign Office is understood to be preparing a contingency plan for what is being described as “a soft military coup”. For the first time ever, the senior council of the military is meeting in open session without the President or his representatives: a very provocative or very risky move depending on your persuasion.
For its part, the ruling party is holding the line. General Secretary, Hossam Badrawi, has told the BBC that Mubarak has been “accomodating” in discussions about handing over to the Vice-President. According to the regime’s TV channel, Omar Suleiman and Mubarak are meeting now to discuss the transition.
The army will, of course, be crucial to ensuring an ordered transfer of power in a country it has controlled since 1952. As Daniel has noted, Egypt’s future is far from secure even in the protestors’ moment of triumph. It is uncertain whether the disparate opposition could find accommodation among themselves, let alone with Omar Suleiman. In this context then, perhaps the Egyptian military has intervened for the ‘good of the state’, something in which it is historically practised.
Rumours of a coup are tearing through Cairo. The army could save Mubarak, remove him, install Suleiman, or remove him. The word ‘fluid’ barely describes the situation; ‘smooth transition of power’ it isn’t.
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