A dangerous escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict this morning, as rockets are fired into northern Israel from Lebanon. As far as I can tell, no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks – although suspicion has to fall on Hezbollah. The fear now is that this represents the opening of another sustained front in the current conflict. And the key question is of how Israel will respond.
Any response will partly be a function of scope and ambition. Does the Israeli administration feel it’s already dealt enough damage to Hamas in Gaza? Does it want to spend more time to effectively wipe out Hamas? Or does it want to tackle other terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah, as well? Of course, the more ambitious Israel’s aims, the less likely it is to succeed; and the longer and more expansive its campaign, the less likely it is to win the PR war.
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