Nikki Da Costa

Can Britain really leave the EU before the European elections?

Last Thursday the Prime Minister told MPs that ‘if we were able to pass a deal by 22 May, we would not have to take part in European elections and, when the EU has also ratified, we would be able to leave at 11pm on 31 May.’ Her point – since picked up by ministers – was to ram home to Leave supporting MPs that ‘the date of our departure from the EU, and our participation in the European parliamentary elections’ was down to them.

But is it realistic to think this timetable can be met? Can the government deliver? In my view, this would require a level of legislative aggression from government, and a certainty of numbers, not seen in this parliament.

Ratification of May’s deal by the UK – as set out in the EU Withdrawal Act – is dependent on the Commons approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship (through what has become known as the ‘meaningful vote’), as well as passing a Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), which implements the deal.

Even if somehow there was a miraculous breakthrough in the domestic Brexit negotiations on the first day back after recess and May secured a majority for some sort of deal, there would still be just four weeks for the implementation Bill to pass through parliament. If parliament stayed open at the weekends, that’s a maximum of 29 days, with no gaps between each legislative stage.

Politically, however, it seems highly unlikely that we will see this breakthrough, with either indicative votes or a Labour-backed deal, before the local elections on 2 May. Both of these routes would probably lead to the government supporting the UK staying in the customs union, breaking a manifesto commitment, which means it would be unwise for them to have a vote on the eve of local elections on 2 May.

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