David Quinn

Can Leo Varadkar survive the upcoming Irish election?

Yesterday, the Irish government announced that there will be a General Election on Saturday, February 8. Curiously, the path to it was cleared by Boris Johnson’s decisive electoral win last month. Up to now, there has been no desire on the part of either the government or the main opposition parties to hold an election because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Partisan politics were largely set aside, all the parties donned the ‘green jersey’ and teamed up with Brussels to try and ensure either the softest possible Brexit, or no Brexit at all.

The united front disguised the fact that, Brexit-aside, the Leo Varadkar-led Government has been a lame duck for months. It has been dogged by a housing and healthcare crisis, and under normal circumstances these might have triggered an election. But thanks to Brexit and the resultant turmoil, normal politics in Ireland has been in a state of indefinite suspended animation.

But now that a deal has been struck and an election announced, things are not looking particularly good for Leo Varadkar. It must be remembered that Varadkar has never actually faced the Irish people as the leader of Fine Gael. He became Taoiseach in 2017, following the resignation of his predecessor, Enda Kenny. In the subsequent leadership race, he won because of his strong support base within the Fine Gael parliamentary party, but two-thirds of the Fine Gael rank and file voted for his rival, Simon Coveney, who is now Tanaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs. This alone makes Varadkar’s position look fragile. If he couldn’t get ordinary Fine Gael members to vote for him in 2017, how will he fare in the upcoming general election?

It’s unlikely that Varadkar will benefit much, if at all, from his strong stance against Britain during the Brexit negotiations.

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