James Forsyth James Forsyth

Could a eurozone crisis benefit Britain?

Is it better to negotiate with a confident, optimistic European Union or a nervous, fretful one? Even Brexiteers are split on this question. Some take the view that the European Union’s difficulty is Britain’s opportunity and that bad news for Brussels is good news for Brexit. But most, and especially those in government, tend to think that a more confident EU will be less scared of other countries following Britain’s lead, and so more inclined to do a decent deal.

In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, there were worries in Brussels that Brexit was just the start. Senior European political figures feared that 2017 could see the populist Geert Wilders top the poll in Holland and Marine Le Pen break the 40 per cent barrier in France. In the end, these fears turned out to be misplaced. Wilders came a poor second and Le Pen didn’t even break 35 per cent. She was defeated in the second round by an explicitly pro-EU candidate who arrived at his victory rally to the ‘Ode to Joy’.

Even so, the defeat of Wilders and Le Pen — and the receding possibility of any other state following Britain out of the EU — didn’t lead to a notable shift in the Commission’s approach to Brexit.

The EU’s current attitude to Brexit goes beyond a reasonable and legitimate desire to protect the integrity of the single market. The Commission seems determined to make it as difficult as possible for the UK to continue playing the disproportionate role it does in the defence of Europe. Its attitude regarding the Galileo satellite navigation system, for example, is a remarkably mean–spirited response to the UK’s guarantees that its commitment to the defence of Europe is unconditional.

Given that Britain is one of the only four current EU members to meet the Nato 2 per cent target for defence spending (the other three are Greece, Estonia and Poland), the Commission is being remarkably shortsighted.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in