Tom Gross

Could Donald Trump unexpectedly triumph in his bid for peace in the Middle East?

Could Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize? He would be following in the footsteps of his predecessor but unlike Barack Obama in 2009 his award could be for something significant: helping to bring an end to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts – the dispute between Israelis and Palestinians. 

It might sound implausible but Trump may have a better chance of delivering peace – or at least a non-belligerency agreement – than previous presidents, even if those chances do still remain low. Trump’s Middle East peace envoy (and ex-real estate lawyer) Jason Greenblatt, who I met recently, says that the Trump team will soon unveil their plan – the “deal of the century”, as Trump has dubbed it. It could even come a day or two after next Tuesday’s Israeli elections. The election results will be known the same evening and the coalition that is then formed may be greatly influenced by the content of the plan.

Israel’s election has been closely fought. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has for weeks been running slightly behind the new centrist “Blue and White” party of former general Benny Gantz in the polls. But under Israel’s complex proportional representation system, Netanyahu – even if his party wins fewer seats – is still more likely to gain a record fifth term in office; he has a better chance of building a coalition with smaller parties. But whether Netanyahu survives or not, why might Trump succeed where others have fallen short? For years, diplomats have tried – and failed – to bring about peace. Offers of an independent Palestinian state made to the first Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat by then-Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak (under the guidance of Bill Clinton) in 2000 and 2001 fell on deaf ears. So, too, did the proposal by Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in 2007-08 that gave the Palestinian Authority pretty much everything it supposedly wanted.

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