James Forsyth James Forsyth

Escaping the dragon: the government’s new approach to China

How Boris Johnson plans to reduce our dependence on Beijing

How will the world be different after coronavirus? Will everything return to the way it was or will there be lasting change? For this country, there is one thing that will clearly be different: the government’s approach to China. I understand that while Boris Johnson’s grand, integrated foreign policy review has been put on hold because of the pandemic, the work on Anglo-Sino relations has been brought forward as a matter of urgency. One of those heavily involved in the development of this new policy tells me that the aim is to get this country ‘off the trajectory of ever-increasing dependence’ on China.

The issue is not that Covid-19 emerged from Wuhan but what the crisis has revealed about the Chinese state and the UK’s dependence on it. Ministers have seen first-hand how reliant the UK is on China for vital goods — particularly personal protective equipment — and, more importantly, that this is not a normal trading relationship. They are acutely aware that if the UK is too critical of Beijing, these shipments will dry up.

Uppermost in ministers’ minds is the example of Australia, which called for an independent inquiry into the origins of coronavirus. Beijing was furious and responded by slapping tariffs on its barley and refusing imports from four key Australian abattoirs. There has also been talk of consumer boycotts of Australian produce and reports that power plants are being urged not to use coal from the country. A third of Australia’s trade is with China. It now finds itself vulnerable to a communist state that is willing to use economic links to punish countries that step out of line. This is a situation that Britain does not want to be in.

This shift in British thinking marks a rejection of the David Cameron-George Osborne ‘new golden era’ in relations with China.

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