Keir Starmer has laid down a marker by suspending seven Labour MPs from the whip. The question is: What sort of marker? Will it benefit the Prime Minister in the long run? It is not normal to suspend the whip from an MP for rebelling on a non-confidence matter. The two-child benefit cap is also being retained out of fiscal necessity rather than because it is a key part of Starmer’s vision for the country. So it is an unusual matter to take such a hard line on.
The ones who were suspended were what most people would regard as the usual suspects
It used to be the case that removing the whip from an MP was the nuclear option, but this has changed in recent years. It has become an administrative measure when a member is under investigation, which brings parties more into line with companies and other organisations that suspend staff when allegations are made against them. When Boris Johnson stripped the whip from anti-Brexit Tory rebels in 2019, it was shock. Now, it has become more of a run-of-the-mill punishment.
Normally rebels end up getting parked on delegated legislation committees that start at 8.15 a.m. and refused requests for overseas travel that means they’ll miss votes: that’s the level of punishment MPs are used to for this kind of infraction. Still, it was made clear to the rebels ahead of the vote that they would lose the whip, so they knew what was coming. The threats were enough to stop a number of other rebels: it is hard to gauge what is an abstention and what is an absence due to other reasons (including illness), but not all Labour MPs voted last night. A number of those who didn’t have been sounding off today. Nadia Whittome has criticised the decision, while other less-obviously hard left MPs have said privately they think Starmer is storing up trouble.
The ones who were suspended were what most people would regard as the usual suspects. John McDonnell, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Apsana Begum, Imran Hussein, Zarah Sultana, Ian Byrne and Richard Burgon were never going to have a frontbench career under Starmer. They are all members of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs. They are close to Jeremy Corbyn. Starmer is clearly sending a message to the left of his party that he’s not going to let them use even a big majority as an excuse to indulge in their own pet projects. That was a mistake made by the Labour whips back in 1997, where they largely let the hard left do as they pleased, merely calling them up to check that they’d be rebelling once again. The party ended up with a large rump of perma-rebels.
There will be other issues where it is harder to contain the rebellion to the obvious awkward squad. If the Tories were any good, they would be forcing these votes repeatedly. As it was, the official opposition merely tabled a plaintive amendment complaining that no one was acknowledging that the economy was improving when Labour took over, which will forever be remembered as the ‘shouldn’t have gone for an early election’ Rishi Sunak memorial motion.
At some point, Starmer will announce that he is scrapping the two-child cap. He has hinted that the child poverty taskforce chaired by Bridget Phillipson and Liz Kendall will examine this as an option. Even if the cap remains for that full period, when the reversal comes, those rebels will make the most of their martyr status and will claim that they were a part of the pressure that forced Starmer to change course. His disagreement with his party has always been about when, not if, he would drop the cap, and the stand-off with the rebels was about them trusting in his timings, or pushing for their own.
The left is not a diminished force in this Parliament, despite Starmer’s huge majority. The independent MPs and Greens add to their weight across the house. Shockat Adam, who unseated Jon Ashworth, gave his maiden speech yesterday and it was engaging and thoughtful: these new MPs are not daft and they are going to cause trouble for those sitting on the benches opposite. Many of those who did beat independent candidates know that they have a fight on their hands against the left in their constituencies, and will be as attuned to that as they are to goings on in the Commons. They don’t want to indulge the hard left. The question is whether the whipping decision last night has inadvertently done that anyway.
Hear Isabel’s analysis on today’s Coffee House Shots podcast:
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