Katy Balls Katy Balls

How many Conservative MPs would risk Prime Minister Corbyn over Brexit?

Although Theresa May’s Cabinet has finally managed to reach a loose agreement on what they would like to achieve from the upcoming negotiations, the Prime Minister’s troubles look set to continue for the foreseeable. With Jeremy Corbyn expected to confirm that his party backs the UK staying in ‘a’ customs union post-Brexit, there’s growing concern in Whitehall that May’s government could collapse this year.

The most imminent threat comes from the Remain side of her party. The Sunday Times reports that Julian Smith, the chief whip, told May there is a ‘very real threat’ that Labour could unite with 15 to 20 Tory rebels to defeat the government on their decision to rule out membership of a customs union. This vote – on Anna Soubry’s amendment to the trade bill – has been delayed to give the government time to try and remedy the situation. Karen Bradley, the Northern Ireland secretary, is said to have warned May that the DUP should not be relied upon to back the Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, David Davis is reported to have expressed concern that Jacob Rees-Mogg’s appointment as leader of the European Research Group – the Brexiteer wing of the party – has led to MPs ‘militarising’ against May. Were May to do as the likes of Soubry wish and back ‘a’ customs union’, this group could well submit letters demanding a leadership contest.

It follows that May is caught between a rock and a hard place. It’s clear there’s no Brexit position that will please her whole party. The question that remains: is there a form of Brexit that can keep her premiership alive? There’s already talk that No 10 could make the vote on the customs union amendment into a confidence issue, threatening a general election if Tory MPs vote with the opposition.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in