Stephen Crabb has a 3pc chance of winning the Conservative leadership, according to to the bookmakers. Yes, the same ones who said there was a 10pc chance of David Cameron winning a majority and a 7pc chance of Brexit. The seemingly impossible is happening all the time in politics. The obstacles to his joint bid with Sajid Javid are obvious: lack of government experience, lack of MPs’ support (he has 21 so far) and having supported Remain. This is the type of leadership bid aimed at putting down a marker. But for those who believe that this race ought to be as much about ideas as personalities, it’s worth considering their arguments.
Both are interested in blue-collar Conservatism, both have inspiring backstories in an era that regards politics as biography. Personally, I’m a sceptic of judging any politician by their background: as David Cameron said, it’s where you’re going to that counts. What commends both Crabb and Javid is their compelling visions for the future of Conservatism.
With Crabb, it’s about the lessons of last week’s referendum. It was, as Michael Gove said today, an instruction to leave the EU but it was more than that. The social breakdown of the country (and the closeness of the vote) was instructive: the Leavers were, predominantly, poorer voters who feel that they are losing out from globalisation. As Phillipa Stroud says in this week’s magazine, they look to the nation-state to lend a helping hand, not just to leave the EU. A party that has nothing compelling to say to this group (predominantly, but not exclusively, the skilled working class) is a party that’s living on borrowed time.
Crabb, now Work & Pensions Secretary, believes that Conservatism needs to orientate itself towards those people. The wealthy can easy spot and take advantages of the upsides of globalisation: the role of government is to wish them well, stay out of their way and collect their tax. What ought to concern government, Crabb argues, is providing help when it’s needed. The nation state is, fundamentally, a social construct and Brexit is about protecting that nation state. Crabb believes that the Tories should make sure the nation state is used as a tool of social cohesion. And primarily by making sure capitalism works for then. I dislike saying “capitalism”: it’s nonsense word, one that tends to be applied to the basic concept of freedom. But right now the tax, work and benefit system doesn’t work for many people and Crabb, the successor to Iain Duncan Smith, wants to change this.
If the Tories do forge an appealing message, then there could be great electoral dividend. The Scottish referendum showed that once Labour voters defy their leadership on a question of national sovereignty, they’re there for the taking. About a third of UK Labour voters went for Brexit: might they be hovered up by a revived Ukip? Or a Conservative party? Theresa May is right to point to the problems of inequality, but she has (so far) done so in a rather patrician way. She needs a message for the C2s. That ought to be: we’ll cut your taxes, so you work pays more and you’re better able to help your family. If globalisation helps the best-paid to ever-higher salaries, they’ll pay ever-more tax so we need ever-less from the lower-paid half of society. This is already happening (see graph, below) but Tories have run afraid of the argument. A social contract needs to be renewed, and articulated.
This is where Sajid Javid comes in. He was a reluctant Remainer, saying Britain “should never have joined” the EU and conceding that withdrawal would bring a long-term benefit. His argument was that, on balance, the short-term uncertainty of withdrawal outweighed that benefit. Anyone who can think about the referendum rationally ought to admit they weighed things up in a similar way. While so many on the Remain side cannot come to terms with the result (or have been driven mad it) Sajid Javid is thinking clearly.
He is now articulating an argument he’s always believed in: that Britain can mitigate the short-term turbulence with a number of new ideas. He’d lead a series of high-profile Brexit trade missions to meet investors, sending ministers to China, Hong Kong and Brazil to send a very loud and clear message that Britain just voted for greater engagement with the world. That this was not about Little Britain, but a bid to escape a Little Europe.
This message is needed especially now. George Osborne’s inability to snap out of his sulk and provide economic leadership makes the case for someone of Javid’s optimism and energy to take place as soon as possible.
Perhaps more than anything else right now, Britain needs a clear, coherent and compelling economic vision. The FTSE100 is at a ten-month high and the world is asking if Britain has just turned in on itself, or is preparing to face the world – with free trade deals from Canada to South Korea. I suspect both Theresa May and Michael Gove would quite like to have Javid on their ticket, because he has those ideas. His leadership and optimism is such a refreshing change from the sulking, pessimism and negativity that the voters rejected in the referendum.
In the next few days, I’d like to hear both Crabb and Javid talk a lot more about their visions for the future of Conservatism and for Brexit Britain. We’ve had enough of personalities: now is the time for ideas. Crabb and Javid have plenty of them. A reminder that, psychodramas aside, the Tory party has plenty of talent and is heading in an encouraging direction.
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