Why does the NHS need to change?
Increased pressure
The waiting list for hospital treatment has risen by 46% over five years.
The number of beds available overnight in NHS hospitals has fallen by 11,220 (8.1%) since 2011. In the past 12 months, 834 overnight beds have been lost.
The waiting list for consultant-led treatment has risen by 46% in the past five years. The current waiting list is estimated at 4.28 million — up 7% year-on-year.
In 2018, an average of 12,835 people were admitted to hospital via A&E each day — up 6.7% on 2017 and 22.9% on five years ago. This amounts to an extra 2,389 emergency admissions a day.
In 2018, 18.5% of people attending hospital A&E spent longer than four hours in the department, compared with 3.4% in 2010.
The number of ‘trolley waits’ (long waits for admission to hospital) was five times higher last year than in 2012.
Missed performance targets
The average number of urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer has doubled from fewer than 3,000 per day in 2011 to 5,949 per day last year. There were a total of 2.17 million referrals last year.
The NHS target is that 85% of urgent GP referrals for cancer should receive a first treatment within 62 days. This target has been consistently missed since April 2014.
Staff shortages
The number of GPs is estimated to have fallen by 6% over the past three years, while GP numbers fell 1.4% year-on-year.
There is a shortage of more than 100,000 staff across the NHS Trusts. Based on current trends, the gap between staff needed and the number available could reach almost 250,000 by 2030.
Satisfaction data
In 2018, overall satisfaction with the NHS was 53% -— a three percentage point drop from 2017 and the lowest level since 2007.
The four main reasons people gave for being dissatisfied with the NHS were long waiting times, staff shortages; a lack of funding; and money being wasted.
(BSA Survey, 2018)
Transforming the NHS
The NHS Long Term Plan aims to future-proof the NHS for the decade ahead. The planned changes include:
• Boosting out-of-hospital care
• Reducing pressure on emergency hospital services
• More control of their own health for patients, and more personalised care
• Digitally-enabled primary and outpatient care
In February 2019, the government launched NHSX, a joint unit which aims to bring the benefits of modern technology to every patient and clinician. The aim is to create the most advanced health and care service in the world.
The government’s mission is to:
‘Use data, Artificial Intelligence and innovation to transform the prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of chronic diseases by 2030.’
Five new Artificial Intelligence clinics are set to open in the UK this year. These will be able to digitise scans and biopsies, and speed up early diagnosis. One will use AI software to detect anomalies in scans.
The introduction of 5G in the UK will enable real-time health monitoring, as well as improving video conferencing. These innovations could free up 1.1 million GP hours — the equivalent of 600 GPs working full time for a year. Eventually, 5G could allow surgeons to perform operations remotely, using robotics.
What else does the future hold?
‘Digital pills’ which send health data straight to doctors — enabling them to monitor patients remotely. It is estimated that almost 50% of oral chemotherapy users have adherence issues when it comes to taking their medicine. Digital pills could reduce this significantly.
Smart contact lenses that measure internal eye pressure, and glucose and cholesterol levels. High cholesterol is a significant factor in heart and circulatory disease — which cause around 25% of UK deaths.
Smart forks and spoons that counteract any hand tremors afflicting Parkinson’s sufferers. The prevalence of Parkinson’s is predicted to more than double from 0.21% in 2018 to 0.426% in 2065.
(Parkinsons.org.uk)
All figures are for the NHS in England
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