Mark Rutte, the former prime minister of the Netherlands, has been secretary general of Nato for less than nine months. Rutte knew when he decided to seek the job that it would not be easy, but even the famously phlegmatic and unflappable Dutchman cannot have foreseen the intensity of events. Even so, he has stepped up to the challenge. At the Royal Institute of International Affairs, yesterday, he issued a stark warning:
This is a huge political and financial headache for Sir Keir Starmer
Because of Russia, war has returned to Europe… Russia has teamed up with China, North Korea and Iran. They are expanding their militaries and their capabilities. Putin’s war machine is speeding up – not slowing down… Russia could be ready to use military force against Nato within five years.
This threat led logically to the conclusion that Nato must spend far more on its defence than it currently does, especially in light of a likely reduced commitment from the United States. It was true that all Nato member states were likely to reach the target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence this year, but, Rutte pointed out, that commitment dated back to 2014. (Actually, he is being generous: it was originally included in the Ministerial Guidance of Nato’s Defence Planning Committee in 2006.)
The situation is now transformed, and, according to Rutte, it is inevitable that the summit will agree a ‘Nato-wide commitment’ to spend 5 per cent of GDP: this will comprise 3.5 per cent on core military requirements and 1.5 per cent on ‘defence and security-related investments, including infrastructure and building industrial capacity’.
The secretary general explained that this was not a figure chosen at random, but represented the fact that Nato needs a ‘quantum leap’ in defence. His list of requirements was daunting: a 400 per cent increase in air and missile defence, thousands more tanks and armoured vehicles, doubling of logistics, transportation, medical support and other capabilities. Nevertheless, it is hard to say Rutte is wrong in any of this. As he stressed, ‘if we do not invest more, our collective defence is not credible’.
This is a huge political and financial headache for Sir Keir Starmer. It is barely three months since the Prime Minister announced that he would increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP from April 2027, and that the government’s ‘ambition’ was to go further and spend 3 per cent ‘in the next parliament’. This was welcome but insufficient, especially as countries bordering Russia were racing ahead beyond 3 per cent; Poland, for example. will spend 4.7 per cent this year.
In his introduction to the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), published last week, Starmer declared that he wanted the United Kingdom ‘to lead in Nato’. That will not be possible without a specific commitment, not merely an ambition, to increase our defence spending considerably beyond 2.5 per cent. With the United States stepping back, there is a genuine opening for a greater leadership role: France still does not participate in Nato’s Nuclear Planning Group, while Germany has a long way to go to make the Bundeswehr anything like a credible fighting force. But the UK cannot assume that role on the cheap.
Where does the money come from? This week’s spending review is likely to see substantial increases for healthcare (perhaps £30 billion) and transport (£15.6 billion), and other departments are already envious of the Ministry of Defence’s extra £5 billion a year. It is not enough. Starmer will not give a date for increasing spending to 3 per cent, and got into a God-awful mess on the issue last week. Meanwhile, the additional £40 billion of taxes in last year’s Budget were a one-off ‘to restore financial stability’, so further increases would be politically difficult.
I fear the Prime Minister will try to talk his way round the problem. He declared last week that he was ‘100 per cent confident’ that the SDR would make the UK ‘ready for war’, but the reviewers made it clear that increasing spending even to 3 per cent was ‘vital’. Vital, not an ambition. Downing Street has been spinning that defence capabilities are ‘not just about cash’, pointing to the nuclear deterrent, the Royal Navy’s aircraft carriers and the ‘quality’ of personnel.
Obfuscation, sleight of hand and hair-splitting will not wash. Hard decisions, dreadfully hard ones, will need to be taken. Mark Rutte was clear: ‘Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now’. Afterwards, his remarks were even more devastating:
If you would not go to the 5 per cent, you could still have the National Health Service… the pension system, et cetera, but you had better learn to speak Russian.
Your move, Sir Keir.
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