Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Labour bounces back in Brexit-voting wards

Keir Starmer (Credit: Getty images)

One of the trends Keir Starmer will be looking for is the reversal of the Brexit effect, with Labour heartlands coming back to Labour. A study of 200 seats counted so far – a pretty small fragment – does seem to show a correlation with the swing away from the Tories in the places where the Leave vote was strongest.

Will Jennings, a professor at Southampton University, has mapped the election results so the swing is mapped against the strength of Brexit vote. His work, for Sky News, shows a significant correlation so far:

This matters because it supports one of the main hypotheses of a Labour victory: that neither Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak turns out to be an inspiring leader, leaving tribal loyalties to kick in. The 2016 Brexit vote turned Brexiteers in working-class areas from Labour to Tory – but they ended up disillusioned after the failure of the Tories to convert Brexit into a movement for broader reform. So they are swinging back to Labour, tired of the Conservative psychodrama and watching the Brexit cause dying out. 

This reversal of the Brexit effect correlates with the reversal of a Corbyn effect: so we see the return of Labour voters in working-class constituencies. The 'Boris Johnson effect', of course, was never just Johnson – as Brexit voters swung to the Tories before he entered No. 10 and votes counted today are swings vs four years ago, when Theresa May was in charge. And there are always several hypotheses at work on election day. 

We’ll keep this updated as we get more results.

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