David Gauke’s long-awaited Sentencing Review is here. If its recommendations are accepted, we will see thousands of people spared jail and thousands of inmates released as early as a third of the way through their sentence.
The government is relying on the review to save the justice system from collapse. As the Lord Chancellor explained just last week, despite plans to build another 14,000 prison places, the system simply can not keep pace with the growth in our prison population. For months now, ministers and officials have been focused on keeping just enough space in the prison system until the Sentencing Review can be implemented. So now it has arrived, will it avert disaster?
Probation will need every penny
In some ways, Gauke’s recommendations are radical. The Review has made five core recommendations, which they estimate in total will reduce the prison population by 10,300 below what it would have been in 2028.
The recommendations would mean that almost all sentences of less than 12 months are scrapped, with courts using far more suspended sentences, community orders and alternative punishments (such as tagging, driving bans and travel bans). This will put significantly more pressure on our already struggling probation service.
It also poses some other major risks. While it is true to say that short sentences have very high reoffending rates, and that those rates for community orders are much lower, the reality is that very different people receive each kind of sentence. Short prison sentences are rarely issued to first-time offenders. Instead, typical cases might be prolific shoplifters. These people often have significant addictions, and require a great deal of supervision. If and when they breach their community orders, or commit another offence, this report suggests they should then be jailed. We might therefore simply see a spike in crime, followed by another rise in the prison population.
The Review also calls for the journey through prison to be changed dramatically. At present, most prisoners are held on Standard Determinate Sentence (SDS) and released 40 per cent of the way through their sentence, whether they behave well or badly. Gauke believes this needs to change, with model prisoners being released after serving just a third of their time behind bars, while disruptive, violent or drug-taking inmates will serve half their sentence.
While this is a significant change to the current model, I fear it may simultaneously be both too radical and not radical enough. The idea is to reduce violence and disruption by providing inmates with a strong incentive to behave well. In theory it could work, but for this model to be effective, the difference between good behaviour and bad must be significant.
The average jail sentence is currently just over 20 months. Under the Gauke model, an average prisoner could be released in six and a half months if they behave well, or ten if they don’t. Much drug taking, violence and disorder in jails is a result of boredom, frustration or existing mental health and addiction issues. Will a slightly earlier release make a difference to these prisoners? I’m not convinced.
I can see the impact being much greater for those on longer sentences. When good behaviour means release years earlier, prisoners are more likely to change. The review has also proposed a similar change for dangerous prisoners on Extended Determinate Sentences (EDS) under which they could be released as early as halfway through their sentence, but this has already been rejected by the Lord Chancellor.
The government has welcomed the rest of the report, though, and is expected to accept the other key measures. Legislation will soon follow, and I understand that the Lord Chancellor will today announce a 50 per cent increase in the budget for probation, rising from £1.4 billion to £2.1 billion.
Probation will need every penny. The service has struggled to retain staff for years, and although it is hitting its hiring targets, replacing experienced officers with trainees is a dangerous path. Gauke, and the government are both hoping that investment in technology and staff will allow the service to manage this vastly increased responsibility.
The public are ready for change. A separate report, published today by More in Common, says that 64 per cent of people polled are looking for ‘major change’ in the justice system. This isn’t surprising. The system is broken. And if this new model can create space in our jails for proper rehabilitation to take place, while also controlling reoffending on the streets, then the government will deserve a great deal of praise.
However, if probation cannot rise to the challenge, we may find that our prisons are full again before the next election. That would be disastrous for Labour, and for this country.
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