Tonight’s coronavirus press conference was very awkward for the government. It highlighted the bizarre tension between what is happening with the virus, and what ministers have decided is feasible in terms of measures to contain it.
While Matt Hancock and the government scientists set out the ‘exponential rises’ in cases in London, the emergence of a new variant of the virus which seems to be spreading rapidly, and the risks for the NHS in January and February, they were all unable to follow these bleak lines with anything other than a plea for people to choose to do as little as possible over Christmas.
On Wednesday, London and other parts of the South East will go into Tier 3 for a grand total of seven days before the capital decants many of its inhabitants across the country to see their families for Christmas. Hancock was repeatedly asked whether he would reconsider the Christmas amnesty given the rise in cases. While he didn’t rule this out, he was also clear enough that the current government policy is to give people the freedom to mix with other households, while asking them not to do so unless they absolutely have to. This may well be the only thing that is politically possible, but it is worth remembering that Boris Johnson started this pandemic hoping that the public would voluntarily cut back on social contact, before being shocked that most people would only do so when mandated by the government. There is no evidence behaviour has changed since then.
The Health Secretary said: ‘Our messages around Christmas are really clear. We understand why people want to see their loved ones, especially at this time of year, especially after this year. But it must be done in a way that is careful and responsible, and I think people understand that too.’ Similarly, chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty called for a ‘minimalist, responsible’ Christmas.
Whitty also warned that the relaxation over Christmas would cause ‘upward pressure’ on the number of cases, and spoke of the need to protect the NHS in January and February. And this is where the even bigger tension lies. Hancock did not rule out another ‘firebreak’ lockdown in January when asked about it by a member of the public.
But to go for another lockdown would make the political rows of this autumn look like gentle bickering. Conservative MPs have made clear that this would be the point at which Johnson’s leadership would be in question. This evening the influential Covid Recovery Group underlined this, with its chair Mark Harper releasing a statement saying: ‘We must end the devastating cycle of repeated restrictions and lockdowns, recapture the public’s support and confidence and start living in a sustainable way again.’
The government is already at the very limits of what is politically possible when it comes to dealing with a third wave of cases in the coming weeks. We will see very soon whether the entreaties from ministers to the public to make as little use of the Christmas freedoms as possible will have any effect at all. But we already know it’s going to be a very bleak new year indeed.
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