Andy Maciver

Nicola Sturgeon’s successor should be careful what they wish for

(Photo by Craig Brough-Pool/Getty Images)

We are almost there: on Monday, the SNP will appoint its new leader after five weeks of what will surely be remembered as the most controversial and consequential change of leadership in the short history of devolution.

Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation in February came as a surprise even to her closest allies. They knew the First Minister was closer to the end of her tenure than the start; it seemed likely she would find a way to avoid standing in the 2026 Scottish parliament election. But even those closest to her did not believe that, six weeks after she boldly told Laura Kuenssberg that ‘there’s plenty in the tank at the moment’ and that ‘for the avoidance of doubt I don’t feel anywhere near [the end] right now’, she would be answering her final set of First Minister’s Questions today.

This is not the election of a new leader; this is the election of a new party and a new government.

If Sturgeon’s departure was unexpected, so, too, was the manner in which the race to replace her has imploded. A relatively calm campaign seemed likely: those ‘in the know’ expected Angus Robertson, the former Westminster leader and current constitution secretary, to emerge victorious, with Kate Forbes a close second. The pair of them would, it was hoped, go on to lead the SNP to another few election victories.

But that is not where we are. Instead Humza Yousaf is the party establishment’s choice and the candidate defending and pledging to continue the legacy of the Sturgeon-Swinney era. Forbes is his main opposition: the candidate telling the SNP membership that what they think is true is actually false, that what they think is good is actually bad, and that all the people who hate them need to like them in order to win independence for Scotland.

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