Alex Massie Alex Massie

Night of the long claymores: the SNP are poised for a historic, momentous, victory.

The latest Scottish polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft is another reminder, should you still need it, that this year’s election looks like being an unmitigated disaster for Unionism.

The noble, if mischievous, Lord’s research reveals that, as matters stand, the SNP are still on course to all but wipe Labour – and everyone else – off the political map. It will be a bloodbath; a night of the long claymores.

Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy seat? Gone. Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh constituency? Taken. Charlie Kennedy’s Highland fortress? Sacked. Even Jim Murphy’s East Renfrewshire seat is threatened by the Nationalist insurgency. So too is the last remaining Tory MP in Scotland, David Mundell. Which, in turn, means it is not fanciful to suppose Michael Moore’s neighbouring Borders constituency is also vulnerable to the SNP.

If the SNP can, as these figures suggest, enjoy a 28 percent swing in their favour in Gordon Brown’s former seat – the safest Labour bastion in Scotland – then, with the exception of Orkney and Shetland, they can win anywhere else. Everywhere else.  In 2010, the SNP won just 14 percent of the vote in Kirkcaldy. Now they may win the seat. That’s an insurrection of historic proportions.

And, again, the logic of it is impeccable. If you voted Yes in September why would you vote for a Unionist party in May? It does not compute. Doing so would require some synaptic dissonance. What, set beside the future of the nation, does it matter whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband limps into Downing Street? Either result will leave the SNP leadership happy.

Ashcroft’s polling in these Scottish constituencies suggests 30 percent of Labour voters in 2010 are preparing to vote for the SNP in 2015. Even more startlingly, 37 percent of Liberal Democrat supporters now intend to vote for the Nationalists.

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