And so they’re off: Barack Obama’s speech to Congress last night was the beginning of his re-election campaign. This is a jobs bill, he said. You should pass it. In case anyone doubted this he repeated the message more than a dozen times. The forcefulness of his tone appears to have delighted the liberal blogosphere. Democrats appear to believe This is the Obama we’ve been waiting for. Which only reaffirms the fact that this was a political speech disguised as a policy address. As David Frum says, it was all quite cunning.
In fact, as Megan McArdle notes, a good deal of what Obama said is unobjectionable: extending payroll tax cuts is a good idea. Increasing investment on much-needed infrastructure upgrades is a good thing too even if few of these projects will be up-and-running before the election.
Above all, however, the speech was designed to make the President seem reasonable so he can subsequently blame Republicans if the bill does not pass and the American economy remains stalled this time next year. Early indications suggest House Republicans will simply ignore most of Obama’s lecture. In one sense this is reasonable: there’s a $450bn bill attached to the American Jobs Act to be paid for, like so much else, in some unspecified fashion at some unspecified moment in the future.
Nevertheless, the speech was a reminder that Obama is a formidable campaigner and that there are many Americans who, though disappointed with much of his actual record, want to like the President. This remains one of his greatest strengths.
So the savvy move for Republicans might actually be to accept a good part of Obama’s proposals in the reasonable expectation that most of them will have little to no real impact on the American economy by next year. If the job market improves the President will take the credit anyway. If it doesn’t Republicans can say Obama had his chance and blew it. If Republicans really think this plan will have an impact they have an incentive to reject it; if they think it’s cold kale reheated they should accept it. That’s a delicate, even risky, calculation and my guess would be that the opposition will not be minded to assist a President in distress.
But the economy is no more predictable than a roulette wheel and none of the players can control it. This speech, these proposals and the reactions to it are little more than hunches. The American Jobs Act is about politics more than it’s a matter of policy. To switch to a poker analogy, Obama has made his bet and Republicans should call it. Neither side has an obviously winning hand. It’s just a showdown and neither party can control what’s coming on the river.
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