Two new polls out this morning suggest that no party can be confident about winning the next election outright. The Tories lead in both, but in the Com Res poll their margin is only one point and their six point lead with YouGov would not be enough for an overall majority on a uniform swing.
The puzzle is why the Tory momentum that was developing straight after the PBR, the two polls that were conducted straight after that had the Tories 11 and 15 points ahead respectively, has stalled. Personally, I expected that the Damian Green affair would benefit the Tories in the polls. That does not seem to have happened and it might even have hurt them by distracting from their economic message that was finally beginning to come into focus.
Over the medium-term, the political fundamentals still favour the Tories, though. This is one of the reasons why Labour might go early next year.
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