The Afghan data leak is the kind of scandal which is perfect for Reform UK. It involves gross incompetence, profligacy and the complicity of both major parties. The Tories took the decision to allow thousands of Afghans into the country secretly; Labour continued the super-injunction which stopped that fact from being reported. Both Nigel Farage and Zia Yusuf are now gleefully savaging the last Tory government for decisions taken in late 2023.
Two ministers in that Home Office at that time were Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick. She left the Home Office on 13 November; he followed on 6 December. Allies of both say that official records will show that the pair opposed the scale and premise of the Ministry of Defence plan. The secret Afghanistan Response Route began on 19 December, after both had left office. But Reform is now going hard on the fact that both Braverman and Jenrick knew about the proposals and the imposition of the super injunction, which was imposed at the start of September.
For some in Reform, the scandal offers a welcome chance to put Jenrick back in his box. Amid much speculation about the Shadow Justice Secretary’s future plans, for Farage loyalists, the past 24 hours have offered Westminster a useful reminder of the potency of their attacks. They intend to show that Jenrick, like all the other Tories, is tarred by the last 14 years. ‘Nigel is a million times better than him’, says one aide. Having largely ignored Jenrick for months, now is the time for Reform to fire their ammunition. His X account, usually so active, has been silent for the past 24 hours.
Then there is the case of Braverman. She remains a Tory MP but is on constant defection watch. Her husband, Rael, had been a vocal supporter of Reform UK since December. He has chosen to quit the party today – unsurprising, perhaps, given the venom of some of Reform’s attacks. ‘The list of former Tory ministers who should defect to Reform,’ wrote Yusuf yesterday, ‘is shorter than the list that should probably be in jail’. Farage’s party is unapologetic about their robustness and Mr Braverman’s resignation: they argue that their hands cannot be tied in responding to this scandal.
Next week, Reform will begin a major six-week campaign across the country. It is expected to focus on crime and the pressures which are being placed on the justice system by the unprecedented levels of both legal and illegal migration. The Afghan scandal could not have come at a better time to tee all this up. Farage said on X yesterday that ‘amongst the number that have come are convicted sex offenders… the threat to women walking the streets of this country, frankly, is incalculable.’ Expect to see more of that in the weeks that lie ahead.
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