Isaac Chotiner issues a provocation: British coverage of the United States must be really bad if William Hill have been persuaded that Ron Paul is a 12/1 shot to become the next President. This is, I admit, strange. Since Paul had previously been available as a 66/1 chance my suspicion is that, given the likely smallness of the market so far, one mad punter has plonked a couple of grand on Mr Paul, causing Hills to rein in their price in short order. Quite why they should feel the need to do so however, is a mystery. My hunch is that some computer algorithm has gone to work.
On the other hand, trying to outsmart the bookies - and the market - is a mug's game. Perhaps Hills know something we don't. Clearly, this must be the work of a shadowy group of foreign currency speculators who are hedging against President Paul's determination to revive the dollar by returning to the gold standard.
Of greater interest however, is Hillary Clinton's price: she's 5/2 on to be the next President. Not just the nominee, but the President. Rudy Giuliani is 4/1 against, Mitt Romney 8/1 and Barack Obama 10/1. The "value bet" here then is, I would suggest, Mitt Romney, though some punters might be tempted by the 7/4 available on any Republican winning the White House (compared to the Democrats at 5/2 on).