Fraser Nelson

Spectator podcast special: Scotland’s shock poll

Spectator podcast special: Scotland's shock poll
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Would you bet on Scotland staying in the union? Isabel Hardman asks Hamish Macdonell, my former Scotsman colleague, in a podcast she presented this morning. Its about a minute from the end:

listen to ‘Scotland's 'yes' camp takes the lead (Spectator podcast special)’ on Audioboo

</p><p>(function() { var po = document.createElement("script"); po.type = "text/javascript"; po.async = true; po.src = ""; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(po, s); })();</p><p></p><p></p><p>Hamish says he thinks 51/49 -- which means, of course, it’s too close to call. The opinion polls tell one story, but there is another metric: the betting markets. Two weeks ago they had ‘yes’ on just 16 per cent, and today this has doubled to 34 per cent. The below graph shows how the odds have changed (data drawn from Betfair).</p><p></p><p>[datawrapper chart=""]</p><p></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p></p><p>William Hill has lengthened their odds for a NO vote to 2/5 – it had been as short as 1/10. It released this statement earlier:-</p><p><blockquote>'Odds for a Yes vote have shortened steadily since the second tv debate, prior to which they were 11/2, and by Saturday they had come down to 11/4, but the poll putting Yes ahead has coincided with further betting support so we have reacted accordingly and cut the odds to their shortest price yet. The Scottish Referendum has become the biggest political betting event of all time. It is set to produce a £2 million-plus betting turnover which will exceed the last General - and US Presidential - Elections added together.'</blockquote></p><p><div style="color: #222222;">Ladbrokes has cut yes to 7/5, down from 5/1. Its statement:-</div></p><p><blockquote></p><p><div style="color: #222222;">'When it comes to the referendum going to the wire, all bets are off. The odds are now at their closest since betting began and the flow of money suggests they will only tighten further in the run up to polling day.'</div></p><p><div style="color: #222222;"></div></blockquote></p><p><div style="color: #222222;"></div>

Written byFraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is the editor of The Spectator. He is also a columnist with The Daily Telegraph, a member of the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice and the Centre for Policy Studies.

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